What does Pitt need to do to earn an NCAA Tournament berth?
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To gauge Pitt’s — or any team’s — chances to reach the NCAA Tournament, you must accept the first commandment of Bracketology:
All victories count one in the standings but are not equal.
It’s true the Panthers (15-8, 6-6 ACC) have won five of their past six games, six of nine since freshman guard Jaland Lowe was inserted into the starting lineup. But the NCAA Tournament committee evaluates performance and quality of opposition for the entire season, and that’s where Pitt — so far — has fallen short.
Fox Sports bracket analyst Mike DeCourcy, a longtime Pittsburgher, Elizabeth Forward graduate and one of the most respected college basketball voices in the country, releases brackets twice a week (Tuesday and Friday) during the season. For this week, at least, don’t expect to see Pitt among his chosen ones.
“I don’t think they’ll be there, still, for me on Friday,” DeCourcy said. “If it were today, I think their chances would be fairly slim. Right now, Pitt is really struggling in the record metrics. They have a lot of Quad 4 wins (8-0), one of which was in league (Notre Dame), some low Quad 3 wins like Louisville. They didn’t beat anybody significant in nonconference.”
An understanding of how the tournament is assembled requires an explanation of the rankings and the definition of a Quad victory or loss. The selection committee uses the eye test, but the rankings are part of it, too.
Two prominent entities — NCAA NET and KenPom — rank all 362 college basketball teams. Pitt is No. 61 in the NET, 66 in KenPom, as of Thursday. Ken Pomeroy, who used to work as a meteorologist, created KenPom, a ranking service that includes statistics for every NCAA men’s Division I team, archives dating back to 2002 and a blog.
“Ken said, basically, that he believed in selecting (tournament teams) on the results metrics and seeding on the predictive metrics, like his,” DeCourcy said. “The predictive metrics are measuring power and how likely you are to win, based on how you dominate opponents. The other is, ‘We went on the road a bunch and maybe we won a bunch of games by one point, but winning is still the point.’ ”
NET rankings take into account the Quad system, which puts teams into four categories and slots victories and defeats based on the opponent.
For example, Pitt’s victory at Duke is labeled Quad 1 because it came on an opponent’s home floor against a team ranked between 1 and 75 in the Net. Duke is No. 20, based on Thursday’s rankings. Pitt is 1-5 when it plays a Quad 1.
Two other examples, which could end up being bad news for Pitt: Its nonconference victory against No. 168 Oregon State is a Quad 3 because it came on a neutral floor (Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.). Even the victory at West Virginia — where the crowd was as hostile as any Pitt has seen all season — is only a Quad 3 because the Mountaineers (8-14, 3-6 Big 12) are only ranked 142nd.
It should be noted that a strong finish to WVU’s season could turn Pitt’s victory into a Quad 2. The Quad 2 cutoff for road victories is 135. Pitt is 3-1 against Quad 2s.
“It’s pretty unusual to get a win on the road against a major conference team and have it be only Quad 3,” DeCourcy said.
“In the (ACC), they still have only defeated one (Duke), maybe two (No. 33 Wake Forest), NCAA Tournament teams. Wake is probably going to be in my next bracket (Friday), but not definitely. They weren’t in my most recent.”
Pitt’s cause would receive a boost if Wake Forest upgrades a bit, and the Panthers leave Winston-Salem with a victory Feb. 20. The Quad 1 cutoff for home victories is No. 30.
DeCourcy was in town and at Petersen Events Center for the Missouri game Nov. 28, a damaging loss for the Panthers. No. 146 Missouri is one of two Quad 3 losses soiling Pitt’s record. The other is Syracuse’s victory at the Pete.
Yet there is still hope, DeCourcy said.
Pitt has eight games left in the regular season, including difficult — but potentially season-changing — road tests at No. 34 Virginia on Tuesday, Wake Forest and No. 29 Clemson on Feb. 27.
“That could change the whole nature of their season. Every one of those teams is either in the tournament or in the picture,” he said. “They didn’t get it done before so they have to get it done now.”
Pitt’s margin for error is slim.
“I don’t see the road for Pitt to the NCAA Tournament without either winning two of those or winning the conference tournament.”
Meanwhile, Pitt’s four remaining home games against Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State and N.C. State are must-wins.
“They have to win at home,” DeCourcy said, “unless you win all three of those road games. And, then, you can punt one back. But even then, you’re putting yourself in a position where — since it’s so close — you don’t want to give anything back. I think they need to absolutely protect home court and get two of those. I think they’d be really close if they did that.”
DeCourcy said Pitt is significantly improved since he saw it more than two months ago, and Lowe is a big reason.
“When I was there to watch them against Missouri, he barely played. When I saw him at Duke, I (said), ‘Who is this guy?’ It was a revelation.”
Since he became a starter nine games ago, Lowe is averaging 13.3 points and 3.2 assists.
“He’s terrific. He’s not the only guy who’s playing well, but he changes them. He gives them three really, really high-level perimeter players (including Bub Carrington and Ishmael Leggett). (Lowe) certainly made them a different team in the Duke game. I’m sure the Duke folks were surprised by how much of an impact he had in that game.
“It’s clear now that it wasn’t a fluke, that it was not just him having a hot night. But this is who he is as a player. It makes them really dangerous.”