Tim Benz: Steelers in, Ravens out? National playoff prediction creates debate. Here’s why it’s half right
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By throwing a little faith behind the Pittsburgh Steelers, FS1 talk show host Colin Cowherd may have ruffled the feathers of some Baltimore Ravens fans.
During an episode of his program (“The Herd”) last week, Cowherd predicted that the Steelers would supplant the Ravens as one of the AFC’s playoff teams. His overarching premise was that, by his count, every year, there are usually about six teams worth of turnover in the NFL playoff bracket. By his predictions, he had only come up with four for 2023, and they were all in the NFC. Carolina, Detroit, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams were his predictions for new teams that will make the playoffs this year who did not in 2022.
So Cowherd was looking for at least a fifth team — specifically one in the AFC — that would sneak in after failing to do so a year ago. He settled on the Steelers at the expense of Baltimore for three reasons.
1. Steelers star linebacker T.J. Watt was injured for most of the first half of 2022 and is returning (allegedly in good health) this year.
2. The Steelers’ top six or seven players (in his words Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth) have a better injury track record over recent years than Baltimore’s top core of players.
3. The Steelers have a relatively soft schedule.
"The Pittsburgh Steelers, not the Baltimore Ravens, are a playoff team."@ColinCowherd reveals his latest playoff prediction pic.twitter.com/SFEyey07we
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) June 16, 2023
In the big picture, I think Cowherd is right. I do think the Steelers will be a playoff team in 2023. However, I disagree with some of the logic that he took to arrive at that conclusion.
First of all, just because Watt is healthy now doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to stay that way through 17 games this year. By his own admission on Ben Roethlisberger’s most recent podcast, even though Watt eventually recovered from that pec injury a year ago, he had numerous injuries to other parts of his body that nagged at him the rest of the season.
That’s a similar tale to 2021 when Watt was dominant while playing, and he only missed two full games. But he was pulled mid-game in at least two others and played compromised in many more.
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To Cowherd’s second point, it is true that Baltimore has had a nasty track record with injuries in recent years. Just look at Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Ronnie Stanley on offense alone at various points over the last few seasons. Yet, despite all the injuries the Ravens tend to endure, they still make the playoffs most of the time — four of the last five years, to be exact.
Why would this year be any different? And all that is to say nothing of the fact that some of the Steelers players that Cowherd mentioned have had some injury problems as well. Harris played but was significantly hampered by an injured foot for a big chunk of 2022. Pickett was knocked out of two games with concussions. Freiermuth has had concussion issues, too.
As far as Cowherd’s last point, he’s right that the Steelers’ strength of schedule is weak, 25th in the league at .470 according to CBSSports.com. But the Ravens’ strength of schedule is only 21st at .484.
Meanwhile, the other two wild-card teams from last year besides Baltimore, the Miami Dolphins (2nd at .554) and Los Angeles Chargers (tied for 12th at .517), have much harder schedules. Don’t forget injury concerns that dogged Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa last year.
So I am on board with Cowherd’s initial theory that the Steelers should be a team that makes the playoffs in 2023 after failing to qualify in 2022.
However, I don’t think that the Steelers getting in and the Ravens falling out have to be mutually tethered propositions. I think that the Dolphins or Chargers are more likely to drop out than Baltimore would be if the Steelers were to scratch into the AFC’s top seven at the end of the season.