Tim Benz: Fancy stats prove a simple notion in Chiefs’ Super Bowl win — coach, QB shine en route to victory
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Sometimes we oversimplify NFL coverage. We make everything about the coach and the quarterbacks.
Sometimes, though, that is the case.
And sometimes fancy stats can be used to highlight a simple premise.
All that was proven true in Super Bowl LVII as the Kansas City Chiefs outscored the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 with Patrick Mahomes earning his second Super Bowl MVP for going 21-27 for 182 yards, three touchdowns and a rating of 131.8. He also had a critical 26-yard scramble on the game-winning drive.
To be clear, though, it’s not like Jalen Hurts was outplayed at quarterback for the Eagles. He threw for 304 yards and ran for 70, accounting for four touchdowns. And it’s not like Nick Siriani coached a bad game for Philadelphia. At one point his team was up 10 points and the game came down to the final drive.
But as many of the NFL NextGen stats illustrate, the quarterback play of Mahomes and the play design by the Chiefs tell the story of how K.C. swung the balance of the game in their favor.
• Like a lot of people who bet on the Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl, I was lured by the prospect of what their defensive front may do to an injured Mahomes behind a Kansas City offensive line that allowed three sacks to the Cincinnati Bengals the week before.
Clearly, the Eagles defensive front, with 78 sacks over the first 19 games, would be the dominant force in the game, right?
Wrong.
Mahomes was hit five times. But he wasn’t sacked at all. Head coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and the rest of the Kansas City coaches designed an offense that neutralized the Eagles’ vaunted pass rush. The Chiefs line blocked it up. Mahomes executed it by getting the ball out quickly and accurately.
Patrick Mahomes was pressured on 25.9% of his dropbacks in Super Bowl LVII.
This was the first game since Week 12 where the Eagles did not record a pressure rate over 34%, snapping their NGS era record of 8-straight games.#SBLVII | #ChiefsKingdom
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 13, 2023
The Chiefs may have only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, but it was enough to get the job done and not expose Mahomes and his injured ankle to the Philly’s front four. Mahomes averaged 8.1 yards per attempt during the regular season, second in the NFL.
An average of 6.7 was good for 28th during the 2022 regular season. In comparison, Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett averaged 6.2 in Matt Canada’s offense.
• When Steelers fans complain about their team not using the middle of the field well enough, take a look at what the Chiefs did against the Eagles.
According to the NFL’s NextGen Stats, Mahomes targeted the middle of the field on over half of his passes in the game. He completed 14 of 15 of those throws for 119 yards.
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Many talked about the Eagles front coming into the game and the skill they have at the cornerback position. But it was believed that Mahomes may have some success over the middle of the field if he had enough time. And that was proven true.
• Despite two weeks of conversation about how to limit the impact of Travis Kelce, the Chiefs star tight end still put his imprint on the Super Bowl.
The four-time All-Pro was targeted six times and caught all six of those passes for a team-high 81 yards. And via NextGen, Kelce exploited a disproportionate amount of man coverage from Philadelphia.
The Eagles played man coverage on a season-high 55.6% of pass plays in Super Bowl LVII.
Travis Kelce capitalized on the opportunity, catching 4 of his 6 receptions against man coverage for 39 yards & a TD.#SBLVII | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/pdTZbzDGPU
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 13, 2023
For as much as opposing defenses try to take away Kelce, Reid and Bieniemy still scheme him open. And when that doesn’t happen, Kelce just runs himself open.
• Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is going to be a problem in the AFC for a while.
The rookie running back was a popular fantasy football sleeper late in drafts. He got off to a slow start, gaining under 10 yards six times in the first eight games of this season. But he gained momentum as the season went along, reaching 65 yards or more nine times in his last 12 games, including the playoffs. He ended up with 830 in his first year.
The Rutgers product picked up yards he was not expected to get throughout the season and during the Super Bowl.
Isiah Pacheco gained +13 rushing yards over expected in #SuperBowlLVII, continuing his success from this season.
Pacheco ends his rookie year with +173 rushing yards over expected, the most by any rookie over the last two seasons (incl. playoffs).#SBLVII | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/8fSAsDz339
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 13, 2023
Pacheco gained 5.1 yards per carry on 15 attempts, good for 76 yards and a touchdown.
• One note on the officiating, I know a lot of people are upset about the late defensive holding penalty JuJu Smith-Schuster drew on James Bradberry. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t benefit from a few officiating decisions too.
I feel like for the first 35 years of my life, Nick Bolton’s second scoop-and-score for the K.C. defense was initially a catch and fumble by Eagles running back Miles Sanders. That’s how it was ruled on the field. It was overturned. By the letter of the law, I get why the overturn happened. But applying that principle goes back to making the definition of a catch far more nebulous than it needs to be.
That’s to say nothing of how often Lane Johnson appears to have gotten away with false starts and the fact that a 50-50 challenge went in favor of Dallas Goedert’s catch on a third-down play in the second half.