Tim Benz: Biggest reasons Steelers turned season around — and can they do them again in ’23?
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In 2022, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the season 2-6. They ended up 9-8.
Here are the five big reasons why they were able to salvage a winning season and a look at if those positives may carry over to 2023.
1. Kenny Pickett started taking care of the ball
The Steelers coaches eventually settled on rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett as the man to run the team in his first year.
Mainly because Pickett allowed them to allow him to do it.
He did so by avoiding turnovers. After eight interceptions in his first five appearances, Pickett only threw one interception in seven full games after the bye. He totaled 224 passing attempts.
Also, “he of the small hands” only lost one fumble all season.
Largely because of Pickett’s ability to avoid mistakes, Pro Football Focus graded him as having the highest rating of any quarterback in the NFL after Week 12 aside from MVP candidate Josh Allen.
Is it sustainable?: To that degree? Probably not.
Mainly because some of the other stats for Pickett aren’t so good. For instance, his 6.2 yards per attempt and seven touchdowns on the season was good for just 33rd in the NFL in both categories.
For this offense to evolve, the Steelers need to take a few more risks in the pass game. With those risks will come a few more picks. The club is going to have to be able to sustain a few more giveaways and still win games at the expense of hunting for more scores and the occasional quick strikes.
“What you saw from us was what was appropriate, particularly over the second half of the year, in an effort to engineer victory,” coach Mike Tomlin said of his offense at Monday’s season-ending press conference. “As we move forward, we’re continually trying to get better in all areas. How does that shape and affect your personality? It does. It does in all three phases. It does individually and in totality.”
Pickett seems to be on the right path to finding that balance. But it may be a bit of a process early in 2023 as the Steelers try to make their offense expand.
2. Late-game execution
Five of the Steelers seven wins after the bye were one-score games.
Three of their six losses before the bye were by six points or less. A fourth defeat — a Week 3 loss in Cleveland, 29-17 — featured a blown second half lead by the Steelers.
Against the Baltimore Ravens (Week 17) and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 16), Pickett led last-minute, come-from-behind, game-winning touchdown drives. In both of those games, the defense sealed the game with interceptions.
Against the Browns, Saints and Colts, Pickett and the offense scored fourth-quarter touchdowns when the game was within one touchdown. In the nine games after the bye, the Steelers outscored opponents 63-32.
Is it sustainable?: It should be. Theoretically.
Based on what we outlined above, if the offense develops to score more points early and the defense is staked to more leads to turn a (hopefully) healthy T.J. Watt and the pass rush loose more often, then, yes, the Steelers could get a lead more often and may not have to scramble back as often.
Just notice the words “if,” “theoretically,” “hopefully” and “could” in those sentences.
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3. Run game rediscovered
Before the bye, the Steelers averaged 94.8 rushing yards per game. After the bye, the Steelers averaged 146.4.
The stark contrast was multi-pronged. First of all, what appeared to be a dreadful offensive line at the start of the season got better and better as the year went along. Also, as they improved, no one ever got hurt along the offensive front. The starting five — (from left to right) Dan Moore, Kevin Dotson, Mason Cole, James Daniels and Chuks Okorafor — all played between 96-100% of the team’s snaps.
“The most significant thing about the development of our offensive line is the availability of that group,” Tomlin said Monday. “The continuity required to grow is a major component of it, and we’re thankful that not only do we have really good consistent in-game performance with that group, but just good practice ability and consistency in that area from that group.”
The health of running back Najee Harris was a big factor as well. Harris played injured early in the season. In the eight games before the bye, Harris was averaging only 45.1 yards per game. In the nine games after the bye, after his troublesome foot injury started to heal, he averaged 75.2.
“I just think there’s confidence,” offensive coordinator Matt Canada said of a healthy Harris before the regular season finale against the Browns. “He’s hitting the hole. He’s seeing the hole.
“I do think there was a little bit of (an issue with) his health. He would say that to us (early in the season). He’s a tough guy that was playing.”
Then there was the emergence of Jaylen Warren. The rookie free agent proved to be more than just Harris’ backup. He developed as a solid, complementary runner, even when Harris was healthy.
On 77 rushes this year, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per attempt.
Is it sustainable?: Maybe. If Harris and Warren stay healthy for the bulk of the games? Yes.
If the Steelers offensive line proves that last year wasn’t a fluke, and that it can handle an injury or two along the way after so much good fortune in 2022? Yes.
4. The schedule
In the second half of the season, the Steelers exploited teams who were in even worse shape than they were.
Six of the seven Steelers wins in the second half of the season came against teams with sub-.500 records.
In the other three games, the Steelers lost to the 12-4 Bengals and split with the 10-7 Ravens.
Is it sustainable?: Strangely, it appears so.
Normally, the reflex answer to a question like that is, “No, predicted NFL strength of schedules are impossible to nail down.”
But next year’s slate hardly appears to be a murderer’s row of opponents. Aside from the usual six games against AFC North foes, the Steelers only play three playoff teams (9-8 Jacksonville, 9-8 Seattle, 13-4 San Francisco). San Francisco, Cincinnati and Baltimore are the only double-digit-win teams the Steelers will face.
And when it comes to the 49ers and Ravens, it’s unclear what their QB situations will be.
One issue, though. The Steelers avoided any trips to the Pacific time zone in 2022. Normally they stink when they have to fly west. Next year, Tomlin’s team has to visit Seattle, Las Vegas and Los Angeles (Rams).
5. Deliberate defense
At times over the first half of the season, the Steelers rush defense looked like the unit that yielded a league-worst 146 yards per game on the ground. Four of the first five Steelers opponents gobbled up between 120-171 yards rushing in ‘22.
Others would’ve run more if passing wasn’t so easy. Star receivers such as Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper and A.J. Brown all had 100-yard days and touchdowns against the Steelers during that opening eight-game stretch.
But in the second half of the season, Steelers opponents were held to 96.2 yards rushing per game. And the likes of standout receivers such as Cooper and Davante Adams were held in check.
The return of T.J. Watt after the bye sure helped. So did Pro Bowl play from Minkah Fitzpatrick, 14.5 sacks from Alex Highsmith and a second-half resurgence from Cameron Heyward. Fitzpatrick had six of the team’s NFL-leading 20 interceptions.
Is it sustainable?: Depends. Ask the front office.
Watt, Heyward, Highsmith and Fitzpatrick will all be back. But there are free-agency questions that exist for starters at defensive line, inside linebacker, safety and cornerback.
The Steelers can’t keep them all. But they can’t lose them all either. It’ll be a tough balance, especially as they try to bolster depth along the line and wide receiver via the draft and free agency.