Steelers 4 Downs: Season point totals suggest major mismatch vs. Eagles, especially in 1st half
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1. First-half fun
Perhaps one number differential best points out the degree of the on-paper mismatch for Sunday’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have scored more points this season in the second quarters of games alone (112) than the Steelers have scored all season (107).
Let that sink in. And then consider the Eagles have had their bye week. So, those 112 points have been scored in just 90 minutes of game time. The Steelers have needed virtually every one of the 430 minutes they have played this season just to nudge past 100 points this past week.
Granted, the Eagles’ second-quarter point outbursts have been an outlier, as Sharp Football Analysis points out. The Eagles’ second-quarter points have accounted for 69.6% of their total season production. No other team this season has scored as much as 50% of their points in any quarter.
Still, keeping the game close at halftime could work in the Steelers’ favor: Philadelphia leads the NFL in points per drive in the first half (3.51) but is fourth-worst in the league in points per drive in the second half (1.17).
2. Contrasting offenses
Sharp Football provided some other tidbits that shine the spotlight on how good the Eagles have been — and how bad the Steelers have been — on offense.
The Steelers’ rate of three-and-out (defined as a drive that goes three plays and a punt) is 32.1%, while the Eagles’ sits at 10.8%. Philadelphia’s ratio is second-best in the NFL. The Steelers rank dead last.
One more Sharp Football stat to pile in for good measure: the Steelers are the only team in the NFL without a touchdown of 20 or more yards this season.
3. Wait — there’s more
Not to be outdone, NFL’s Next Gen Stats found yet another analytics-based observation to support why the Eagles are such big favorites Sunday (10.5 as of Saturday).
Next Gen does a weekly video segment highlighting the “biggest mismatches” of the week. And for Week 8, the league’s official statistical arm says the biggest of all the mismatches is Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts facing a “split-safety” defense. Hurts has the fourth-highest Next Gen “passing score” of all NFL QBs when facing split-safety looks.
Next Gen reports the Steelers have the fifth-worst success rate while defending with a split-safety look, a scheme they deploy 38% of the time (slightly below league average).
4. Short yardage
The Steelers have converted eight of their 10 opportunities on “possession” downs with 1 yard to go — five of seven on third-and-1 plays have picked up first downs, and all three of their fourth-and-1 snaps have produced a first down.
Such plays were a problem last season, particularly on running plays: the Steelers were just 9 for 16 in gaining first downs on third-and-1 rushes.
The breakdown this season is 4 for 6 on third-and-1 runs, 3 for 3 on fourth-and-1 runs and 1 for 1 when passing on third-and-1.
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