Steelers 4 Downs: New advanced metric suggests Diontae Johnson an elite receiver
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1. Among the best
ESPN this week unveiled a new advanced metric to quantify the value of NFL receivers. The network calls its tool “Receiver Tracking Metrics” and describes it as using tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats “to analyze every route run — including those that are untargeted — and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC).” It’s the most comprehensive attempt yet to tackle the difficult quandary of isolating an evaluation of those whose job it is to catch passes in an increasingly pass-heavy sport.
And what Pittsburgh Steelers fans who discover the crunched numbers might find out is Diontae Johnson is among the league’s best pass-catchers.
In data collected since the start of last season, Johnson rates as tied for the 10th-best receiver in the NFL (ninth best among wide receivers). Additionally, he is the third best at getting open (“Open score”) in that time period but has the best “Open Score” of any pass catcher since 2017 (as far back as ESPN went with this project).
While Johnson excelling at getting open is not surprising for someone with such quick feet, RTMs data also paints him kindly for his hands. Johnson had some high-profile struggles with drops in 2020-21, but through three games of 2022 he has the league’s best “Catch Score.”
2. Also from RTMs
The best overall season for a receiver under the stat is Antonio Brown’s 2017 campaign in which he had 101 catches for 1,533 yards and was first-team All-Pro while playing for the Steelers.
It’s difficult to provide appropriate perspective for such an abstract metric, but consider that Brown’s 98 score — on a scale of 0-99 with 50 being average — is one of only six rated 90 or higher over the thousands of individual seasons by wide receivers and tight ends since 2017. Only one other instance (the New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas scored 96 in 2018) did any player rate higher than 94.
On a negative note, George Pickens is not scoring well through three weeks of his young career. Pickens’ overall score of 35 is second worst among NFL rookies; his 28 “Open Score” (which measures ability to get open) is second worst among all NFL pass-catchers.
3. Run resistance
The Steelers over this past offseason made it a priority to improve the NFL’s consensus worst rushing defense in 2021. The early numbers indicate they did indeed improve. But the unit still has a long way to go.
The raw numbers show the Steelers are allowing the fifth-most yards per game (142.7), albeit with a per-carry average of 4.2 that rates tied for 12th-best in the league.
What do the deeper numbers say? ESPN says the Steelers have the NFL’s fourth-worst run defense based off its “win rate” stat. Pro Football Focus’ grades and footballoutsiders.com’s DVOA (Value Over Average) peg the Steelers’ run defense as slightly below average at 17th in the NFL.
4. Money Mitch
Much has been made about Mitch Trubisky’s lack of downfield throws. But where does Trubisky rank among NFL quarterbacks in regards to passes of at least a certain length?
Headed into Week 4, Trubisky was tied for 25th in pass attempts at least 10 yards downfield (22), he was tied for 19th in pass attempts at least 20 yards downfield (eight), tied for 12th in pass attempts at least 30 yards downfield (four) and tied for 26th (or, last, if you prefer to view it that way) in pass attempts at least 40 yards downfield (zero).