Steelers 4 Downs: Kenny Pickett excels at short-yardage QB sneaks
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1. Kenny would
As he enters his sixth NFL start Sunday, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has more touchdowns rushing (three) than passing (two). While the latter number would figure to improve, Pickett is creating enough of sample size on one aspect of the former that would seem to make that a sustainable strength.
Pickett’s 1-yard sneak during this past Sunday’s win against the New Orleans Saints was his third TD on a “sneak,” loosely defined as a short yardage QB keeper between the tackles. He’s 2 for 2 at the goal line on such plays in his career, also scoring in his first game Oct. 2 against the New York Jets.
Pickett had a 2-yard touchdown during that game, too, albeit from the shotgun on more of a spread-out formation. But when counting runs on third- or fourth-and-1 from anywhere on the field, Pickett has a 6-for-6 success rate among the six games he’s played. He’d be 7 for 7 if not for an illegal formation penalty that took away a successful sneak against the Miami Dolphins last month.
Pickett’s score against the Saints exhibited that it’s not all luck, either: Pickett read the play, showed patience and scored off right guard. As several analytical outlets have chronicled over the years, the QB sneak involves a skillset from the quarterback. It’s not a coincidence, for example, that the man widely considered the greatest quarterback of all time also has been quantitatively measured as of the best at running the QB sneak.
Pickett, by the way, rates highly in Pro Football Focus’ grades. He’s graded as the Steelers best runner and the ninth-best runner among NFL quarterbacks.
Kenny Keeper ???? @kennypickett10
???? Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/E0NYNURgPa pic.twitter.com/aYBd4IlmWI
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 13, 2022
2. Harris higher
Najee Harris set season highs in rushing yards (99), carries (20) and average per carry (4.95) during last Sunday’s win. The advanced analytics, too, saw Harris’ effort against the Saints as his best of the season.
NFL Next Gen Stats relays that Harris’ plus-16 yards over expected was not only his best of the season but the only time during this season Harris was “plus” and not “minus” in that metric. He has ranked last in the league in virtually all season in yards over expected. Even after last week, Harris still is 49th out of 49 qualifying running backs in RYOE. At least on a per-carry basis, Harris “improved” to third-worst in RYOE.
Harris also moved up the charts slightly in “efficiency,” the ratio of total distance ran on carries compared to yards gained (lower numbers represent so-called “north/south” runners). Harris’ 3.07 efficiency against New Orleans was his best of the season, the only time this season that number was sub-4.0, and it improved his overall season efficiency to 4.35 — all the way up to 43rd among NFL running backs.
Najee Harris credits the Steelers OL for the ream’s big rushing day pic.twitter.com/HstiikNs3C
— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) November 13, 2022
3. Short-yardage success
If Pickett deserves plaudits for his success running on third- or fourth-and-1, so does the Steelers defense, then, in defending such plays.
The Steelers stoned the Saints on consecutive such plays during the fourth quarter last week — once stopping running back Alvin Kamara and then quarterback Andy Dalton — improving their numbers in that area for the season. For the season, the Steelers have stopped opponents short of the sticks five of 10 times on third-and-1 runs this season. The stop of Dalton was the first successful fourth-and-1 for the Steelers’ defense this season, but even if you combine the third- and fourth-and-1 plays in which opponents run the Steelers still are stopping 6 of 15 (or 40%).
Passing plays? That’s a different story: Opponents are 4 for 4 when throwing on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 against the Steelers this season.
4. Wack YAC
Only six teams in the NFL (per Stats.com) have accumulated fewer yards after the catch this season than the Steelers, who have 818 in nine games (an average of 90.9 per game for all their pass catchers). The Steelers have no individuals among the top 20 in “YAC” in the NFL, and among 109 qualifying wide receivers and tight ends in the NFL, the Steelers’ top two wide receivers rank 108th and tied for 105th in average YAC. Diontae Johnson is second-to-last at 1.7 average yards gained after catch, and George Pickens is tied for fourth-worst at an average of 2.3.
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