Steelers 4 Downs: Bengals’ big-play pass defense a good matchup for Mason Rudolph
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1. Go long
Remember Mason Rudolph’s 67-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Austin III during this preseason’s Pittsburgh Steelers opener? It was proof of how good a deep ball that Rudolph can throw. And in Rudolph’s 2023 regular-season starting debut, that might be an aspect of the game the Steelers can exploit Saturday against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has a tendency to give up big passing plays.
Per data compiled by former New York Jets analytics staffer Arjun Menon, no team in the NFL has allowed more “explosive” plays (defined as runs of 10 or more yards or passes of 20 or more yards) than the Bengals, whom the Steelers host in a 4:30 p.m. game Saturday. Cincinnati opponents have managed 56 passing plays of at least 20 yards, the third-most in the league. Almost one in 10 passes thrown against the Bengals (9.7%) gains at least 20 yards. When the Steelers played at Cincinnati four weeks ago, they had four receptions of at least that long.
The Bengals defense is second-worst in the NFL opponent yards per pass attempt (7.0) and yards per completion (11.4). No team has allowed opponents a longer average depth of pass target (9.6 yards downfield).
Counting rushes and passing plays, the Bengals have allowed the most plays of at least 20 yards (70).
During the Steelers’ Nov. 26 win in Cincinnati, Diontae Johnson (39 yards) and George Pickens (43 yards) had their second-longest receptions of the season, and tight end Pat Freiermuth (29 yards) had his longest.
Este pase de Masón Rudolph a Calvin “Jet” Austin trascendió la línea de golpeo 41.9 yardas por aire antes de ser recibido, según @NextGenStats.@LosSteelers no lanzaron un pase por aire tan largo en toda la temporada 2022.pic.twitter.com/klU1FbKUPu
— Álvaro Martín (@AlvaroNFLMartin) August 15, 2023
2. Mason goes deep
That first Steelers-Bengals game was with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, of course. With Rudolph in for an injured Pickett (and replacing an ineffective Mitch Trubisky), the Steelers might be more willing to throw long. When Rudolph started eight games in 2019, 13.1% of his pass attempts were 20-plus yards downfield (data courtesy Pro Football Focus). Pickett’s rate of such “deep shots” this year is only 8.6%.
In Rudolph’s career, he has thrown one interception among 49 passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. Pickett, meanwhile, has eight interceptions among 75 such “deep” attempts.
Pickett benefited the first time the Steelers played the Bengals, posting the second-most passing yards (278) and second-best passer rating (97.8) of his career and his second-best QBR (66.0) of the season.
3. Playing catch-up
The Steelers have spent way too much of their time “chasing” this season. They have held a lead for only 19% of their offensive snaps, according to Sharp Football Analysis, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
And when it comes to a lead of any sort of comfort? Forget about it. The Steelers have held a lead of 10 or more points for a total of 19 minutes and 54 seconds. More than two-thirds of that total (13:15) came during the second half of a win at the Las Vegas Raiders — but even on that Sept. 24 game, the Raiders scored twice in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers had to sweat out a 23-18 victory.
4. Ugly loss
The Steelers’ 30-13 loss at the Indianapolis Colts last week was ugly for myriad reasons. Next Gen Stats unearthed a couple that might not have been so obvious.
The Colts’ 170 rushing yards were gained despite the Steelers keying on stopping it. Indianapolis’ Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson faced “eight men in the box” for almost half their carries, yet each averaged more than 5 yards per run. Only one other running back in Week 15 faced a so-called “stacked box” more often than Sermon (47.1%), and only three (Sermon included) faced more than Goodson (45.5%).
Additionally, backup QB Gardner Minshew wasn’t too challenged by Steelers coverage. Just 3.6% of his pass attempts were into what Next Gen defines “a tight window,” the lowest rate by any QB in Week 15.
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