Steelers 4 Downs: Analytics peg Najee Harris as maybe NFL’s worst returning starting RB
Share this post:
1. Need better from Najee
The data compiled by NFL Next Gen Stats last season said the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Najee Harris was one of the worst starting running backs in the league. Among the company Harris kept toward the bottom of those lists, Harris is the only one to hold on to his job.
The league’s official advanced statistical arm calculates “Rush Yards Over Expected,” and the only running back to have a worse RYOE than Harris’ minus-116 in 2022 was Leonard Fournette.
Fournette (minus-135 RYOE last year) is out of football on opening weekend of the 2023 season.
On a per-carry basis, Harris had the fourth-worst RYOE in 2022 at minus-0.43. Among the others in the bottom five of that category, the worst (Melvin Gordon) is hanging on a practice squad (of the rival Baltimore Ravens), the second-worst was Fournette, third-worst Michael Carter is a third-stringer in 2023 for the New York Jets and fifth-worst James Robinson — like Fournette — is a free agent.
For good measure, the sixth-worst in average RYOE in 2022 (Ezekiel Elliott) was cut by the Dallas Cowboys this spring and did not get a job until the New England Patriots signed him late during training camp.
Harris, who is entering his third NFL season, also was deep down on the list of footballoutsiders.com’s respected DVOA compilations for running backs in 2022.
Looking at Pro Football Focus data, Harris ranked 25th among the 31 NFL players who had the most carries last season in yards after contact per attempt (2.74). He had the third-worst ratio of yardage gained on carries of 15 or more yards (what PFF dubs “breakaway percentage,” 13.0%).
2. Furious George
The Next Gen Stats data was much more kind to Steelers receiver George Pickens last season. Pickens ranked second in the NFL in highest catch rate over expected (10.6%), and that came while being the player targeted on average the fourth-farthest downfield (14.7 yards per throw to him).
Pro Football Focus calculated Pickens to have the 10th-best passer rating when targeted (109.3) of anyone in the NFL who had as many targets as he did.
During this preseason, Pickens caught all three of his targets for 76 yards and had a touchdown. Albeit a small sample size, he finished as one of seven players to manage a perfect 158.3 passer rating for his quarterbacks when thrown to.
3. Onerous opener losses
Since the NFL expanded to its present 32 teams in 2002, teams that have won their season opener have gone on to advance to the playoffs 53.2% of the time. Teams that start 0-1 have qualified for the postseason just 24.6% of the time.
As far as winning a division title, 21 years of history has said only 15% of teams that lose their first game will win a division. Teams that have begun 1-0 have won their division 35% of the time.
Only 10 of the 57 Super Bowl champions lost their season opener. Each of the Steelers’ six teams to win the Super Bowl started 1-0. Of the past nine Super Bowl champions, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the lone team to lose their opener that season.
4. Herbig a big win
PFF’s analysis loved Steelers’ fourth-round pick Nick Herbig in college, and its analytics continued to reflect favorably on the outside linebacker during his first NFL preseason.
Last season among Power Five conference edge defenders who had at least as many pass-rushing opportunities as he did (192), Herbig graded as the third best. Herbig also was the highest-graded edge defender for his coverage skills among any in a Power Five conference who was asked to be in coverage as often as he was (95 snaps).
During his first professional preseason, it was more of the same for Herbig. Of the 163 defensive players who were asked to rush the passer for at least 20 snaps, Herbig subjectively graded as the sixth best and had the second-best win rate (30.0%).
Herbig was only in coverage for one preseason snap, but only seven Power Five edge defenders were asked to drop into coverage at a higher rate than Herbig (33.1% of opponent passing plays).
Hey, Steelers Nation, get the latest news about the Pittsburgh Steelers here.