Pitt’s Jeff Capel says ‘smarter’ nonconference scheduling could clear smoother path to NCAA Tournament
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Before the start of the season, Jeff Capel felt good about Pitt’s nonconference schedule.
There was a trip to Morgantown, W.Va., where the Mountaineers are usually tough to beat. Plus, Capel scheduled a home date with a Missouri team from the SEC that was in the NCAA Tournament last season.
But things often are not what they seem to be.
Turmoil struck West Virginia’s program last summer when Bob Huggins was removed as coach. Pitt defeated West Virginia, 80-63, while playing one of its best games of the season. But at this point, who cares?
The Mountaineers (9-19, 4-11) are tied for last in the Big 12. “It was a heckuva win for us,” Capel said. “I don’t know how much it helps us.”
Meanwhile, Missouri beat Pitt, 71-64, at Petersen Events Center in December and then proceeded to lose all 15 of its SEC games so far. Like the Mountaineers, the Tigers are a last-place team. That loss is a big, red blob on Pitt’s resume.
So much for trying to impress the NCAA Tournament committee with your nonconference schedule.
Building a competitive — but not too competitive — nonconference schedule is one of the trickiest duties any coach from a power conference must tackle.
With an 18-10 record (9-8 in the ACC) and only three Quad 1 victories in nine tries, Pitt might need a winning streak as long as six games to return to relevance before Selection Sunday on March 17. That includes the final three of the regular season, starting Saturday at Boston College, and three more in the ACC Tournament.
The answer in future seasons might be what Big 12 schools have done: schedule nonconference cupcakes, beat them by large margins and turn most of the conference games into Quad 1 opportunities. Indeed, the Big 12 has the weakest nonconference schedule among the 32 conferences this season, according to the NCAA Net rankings.
“It was a conscious thing, a calculated thing, specifically by one conference,” Capel said, agreeing with what Clemson coach Brad Brownell said earlier this week. “They were smart. They did a heckuva job manipulating (the rankings). They go into (conference play) where basically every team is a Quad 1.”
Capel would like to see the ACC adopt a similar scheduling concept.
“We have to be smarter. We have to be calculating,” he said. “We have to be better as a league. We have to be in lock step (with other leagues’ nonconference schedules).”
With less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, ESPN’s Bracketology projects nine Big 12 teams into the NCAA Tournament. The ACC has only five: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia.
“There’s no way our league shouldn’t get more teams in the NCAA Tournament. There’s just no way,” Capel said, pointing out that ACC is 9-3 against the Big 12 this season.
“It’s frustrating because you hear the negative talk about our league. They play these nonconference schedules that are not very challenging when you look at the numbers. That skews the numbers.”
Capel wonders if it’s right to try to win big at the expense of what’s fair to members of your team.
“If you have a lead late in the game, do you put your walk-ons in or do you keep scoring to try and build a lead?” he said. “I’ve had coaches say to me, if they’re down a lot late in the game, they don’t sub. They hope the other team subs and puts their walk-ons in so all of sudden if they’re down 20, maybe they only lose by 10.
“It takes the human part out of it, too. Your walk-ons work, and if you have an opportunity to put them in, you should do that. But if you go by the metrics, you shouldn’t.”
Pitt jumped 14 spots in the Net rankings after its 86-59 victory against Louisville on Feb. 17.
“It’s a complicated thing, man,” Capel said. “I wish there were some human beings who looked and watched and saw and really studied and picks who makes the tournament. Not going by just computers and numbers.”
Capel said he was worried last year on Selection Sunday that his team that was 14-6 in the ACC might not get an invitation.
“We were one of the last teams in, winning 14 games,” he said. “Clemson won 14 games in the league last year and didn’t make it in. That’s ridiculous.”
Capel carefully chooses his words in public, so it’s instructive to note he felt confident enough Thursday morning to tell reporters, “I think we’re one of the best 68 teams right now.”
With this disclaimer: “But that doesn’t matter. What matters are the numbers.”
Capel said he seldom thinks about Bracketology, metrics and rankings, but members of his staff do bring it to his attention.
“I’m trying to figure out how to beat BC,” he said.
“That’s all I’m trying to figure out.”