Pitt’s bubble status at stake this week vs. Wake Forest, Miami
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Jeff Capel wouldn’t take the bubble bait.
Of course, Pitt’s coach understands the significance of the last 11 regular-season games. After all, Capel and his players created this NCAA Tournament talk — as premature as it might be — by winning their 13th game Jan. 18 (faster than any of the six previous Pitt teams).
Pitt will take a 13-7 record (6-3 in the ACC) into its game Wednesday against Wake Forest (14-6, 6-3) at Petersen Events Center. If you must label it, bubble vs. bubble works. Just leave Capel out of the conversation.
A victory against Wake Forest doesn’t guarantee anything. Yet, it does keep Pitt in a position of national relevance. The most recent ESPN bracketology lists Pitt, a No. 11 seed, playing No. 6 Michigan State.
“It’s not something we’ll talk about,” Capel said. “We haven’t done that all year. We won’t begin to do that now. We’ll just focus on today, how we get better, learn from what we did on Saturday and then turn our focus on playing a really good Wake Forest team.”
But Pitt can fall off the bubble quicker than it climbed onto it. After Wake Forest leaves town, No. 20 Miami (15-4, 6-2) is the next visitor to the Pete on Saturday.
Despite its solid conference record, Pitt is far from a finished product.
Capel’s gang rebounding concept in the absence of John Hugley worked against Florida State. The Seminoles had only four offensive rebounds but won the game, anyway.
“We actually did a good job (rebounding),” the coach said. “We didn’t do a better job defensively. Hopefully we can put it all together.”
The Panthers have played good defense most of the season and are fifth in the ACC in points allowed per game (67.6). But Syracuse scored 30 points in the last 10½ minutes of Pitt’s victory Dec. 20, and opponents recorded more than 70 in three of the past five games.
The key to victory Wednesday will be keeping Wake Forest’s Tyree Appleby, a transfer from Florida, from taking over the game. Appleby is second in the ACC in scoring (17.8) and is the only player shooting better than 78% from the free-throw line who has more than 100 makes (102 of 123, 82.9%).
“First and foremost, he’s really, really confident,” Capel said. “I mean very confident. He plays with a swag, with an edge.
“He has the green light. He’s crafty with the ball. He can shoot it. He can change speeds. He’s fast. He plays with, it seems like, a joy. He loves to play basketball, to compete, and I think their team takes its lead from him.”
The other concern is Damari Monsanto, a transfer from East Tennessee State who is third in the ACC in 3-point percentage (60 of 146, 41.1%).
“He’s a guy, in watching him on tape, you’re a little bit shocked when he misses,” Capel said. “It looks good every time.
“And he doesn’t have a conscience. Even if he does miss, he doesn’t let it affect him. He has convenient amnesia. He’s one of those guys, if he misses, there’s something wrong with the ball or the rim, not him.”
Appleby and Monsanto have helped Wake Forest climb to second in the ACC in field-goal percentage (46.7% overall and 37.4% from 3-point range).
“They’re going to make tough shots,” Capel said.
The game against Wake Forest will be Pitt’s eighth against teams with a winning conference record (Pitt is 4-3). The Panthers defeated N.C. State, Syracuse, North Carolina and No. 7 Virginia while losing to first-place and 24th-ranked Clemson and Duke.
Five of Pitt’s six losses have occurred in three- and two-game losing streaks. If that continues, the team’s momentum and good feeling among its fans may disappear. Pitt is 65th in the NCAA Net rankings, 68th in KenPom.
That’s as precarious as a bubble perch can be, but Capel isn’t worried.
“Spirit was great. Energy was great,” he said of players’ attitudes after the loss to Florida State. “They talked, were upbeat and excited about the next opportunity.”