Pitt Take 5: Underdog role seems to fit 1st-place Panthers
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Pitt fans don’t need another reason to feel disrespected, but KenPom, a ranking service that projects outcomes and ranks teams and conferences, has found one more.
Virginia Tech 75, Pitt 72, Saturday in Blacksburg, Va.
But why worry? DraftKings says Pitt is a 5-point underdog, but the Panthers are 19-6-1 against the point spread during their run to shared residency — with Virginia — atop the ACC. That includes covering eight of 11 times they’ve been an underdog and in all six games as a road dog.
You’ve heard all the narratives about how the ACC is weak this season. KenPom ranks the ACC as the seventh-best conference in college basketball.
Metrics, conference strength and past perceptions that linger might be the reasons Pitt (19-7, 12-3) is unranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and 56th in KenPom. The NCAA Net rankings are kinder to the Panthers, listing them at No. 48.
If the ACC used KenPom for its tournament seeding process, Pitt would be a No. 6 seed at the moment, ranked behind No. 16 Virginia, No. 32 Miami, No. 38 North Carolina, No. 40 Duke and No. 43 N.C. State. Pitt is 5-1 against those teams.
Pitt fans, take a break from gnashing your teeth and ponder these thoughts:
1. Beware of the Hokies
The Hokies are tough to beat at Cassell Coliseum, and Pitt can attest to that after a 74-47 loss there a year ago.
The game was postponed Jan. 1 because of covid complications within the Virginia Tech program and, eventually, played Feb. 7, two days after Pitt lost to the Hokies, 76-71, at Petersen Events Center.
None of the six Pitt players who scored in the second game is currently active, and two starters (including Jamarius Burton) were scoreless.
Pitt is 8-11 all-time against Virginia Tech, including a five-game losing streak at Cassell.
“It gets loud in there,” coach Jeff Capel said.
Jeff Capel, before hitting the road for Blacksburg. pic.twitter.com/SJ1XX1WxVd
— Jerry DiPaola (@JDiPaola_Trib) February 17, 2023
Pitt is accustomed to difficult environments, winning six of seven ACC road games. Five have been decided by one-, two- or eight-point margins.
Yet Capel is smart enough to know the past offers no guarantees.
“I hope so. I feel we are (comfortable away from home),” Capel said. “But we have to keep doing it.”
2. What’s real? 11-1 or 4-10?
The Hokies are 11-3 at home this season but lost there to Boston College, 82-76, on Feb. 8. They also have lost 10 of their past 14 games after an 11-1 start to the season.
Grant Basile (16.5 points per game) and Sean Pedulla (15.5) are among the top 14 scorers in the ACC, and Justyn Mutts is seventh in rebounding (7.4), fourth in assists (4.9) and second in steals (1.7).
Pitt will be watching Basile closely. He averages 12.3 shots, and he hits them at a 51.6% rate (seventh in the ACC).
Capel calls the 6-foot-7 Mutts “a point forward” because of his ability to set up teammates for good shots.
Those are the reasons Virginia Tech (15-11, 5-10) could win at home, but Pitt (19-7, 12-3) needs a victory to build a bigger cushion with potential problem games upcoming against Syracuse and Miami over the next two Saturdays.
3. No such thing as a bad shot — if it goes in
Unlike the Oakland Zoo’s Richard Ferris, Pitt’s Blake Hinson hasn’t swished a shot from three-quarter court this season. But he isn’t shy about letting it fly from almost anywhere else.
Among the top 15 ACC players in field-goal percentage, Hinson is one of six with 300 or more attempts (308). He’s hitting them at a 44.2% rate (14th in the conference). His 3-point percentage is fifth in the ACC (38.4%, 68 of 177).
Fire away, Capel says.
“I’m pretty comfortable with (Hinson’s range),” he said. “The thing I’ve learned with Blake is that he’s going to take some bad ones, but he has the ability to make some bad ones. So, I have to be really careful with how I coach him and what I say.
“A shot that you may think is bad, that could be the thing that gets him going, and he could go on one of those streaks where he makes three, four, five in a row. He has a little bit of latitude.”
Capel gets to know his players by watching them in all settings.
“I’ve seen guys that never miss in practice, and they get in games and they struggle,” he said. “I’ve seen guys who don’t practice well, but when the lights come on it’s very, very different. It’s getting to know them … to see how they are when there’s competition and there are people in the stands and the TV is here.”
4. Caring for the bigs
Smart enough to work in high finance but passionate enough about coaching to make that his profession, Tim O’Toole works with Pitt’s big men. When passing out credit, you can’t forget how O’Toole’s guidance has helped 6-11/7-footers Federiko Federiko and Jorge and Guillermo Diaz Graham fortify Pitt’s rim presence.
Federiko leads the team in rebounds (6.2) and blocks (2.1) in ACC play. The twins aren’t starters, but they have provided a variety of contributions. Guillermo has four 3-pointers and 21 offensive rebounds (second on the team) in 15 conference games; Jorge has blocked eight shots and hit 15 of 19 free throws in that time.
Capel said O’Toole “brings great passion and great energy” to his players. “I think they know he cares deeply about them, not just what they can do on the basketball court. As a coach, that’s the one thing you want your guys to be able to say, ‘Man, that guy really cares about me.’ ”
O’Toole, Capel and assistants Milan Brown and Jason Capel are sons of coaches.
“(O’Toole) grew up seeing the impact coaches can have on young people. I think that was his life’s dream, to be like his dad and have a similar impact.”
5. He does it all
Burton has come a long way from that game in Blacksburg last season. He is one of three players in the NCAA averaging at least 16 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting 50% from the field.