Pitt Take 5: Too early to talk about the NCAA Tournament, but we’re doing it anyway
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The talk is way, way premature, and Jeff Capel and his players don’t want to hear it. But in recent days, there have been more than an occasional reference or question about Pitt’s worthiness for a berth in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Did you see the prediction of a Pitt/Penn State matchup of No. 11 seeds in the First Four?
Pitt reaching March Madness used to be a given. From 2001-02 (the season before Petersen Events Center opened) through 2015-16 (Jamie Dixon’s last at Pitt), the Panthers made 13 appearances in 15 years, twice being granted a No. 1 seed.
Pitt is back in the conversation, thanks to Capel’s reconstruction project elevating Pitt (13-6, 6-2) to among the best teams in the ACC, not just into the top half of the league.
So what will it take? Speaking conservatively, let’s say Pitt wins half of its 12 remaining regular-season games and one more in the ACC Tournament. Would 20-13 (12-8 in the ACC) be good enough? Perhaps.
Pitt already owns victories against No. 10 Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina and N.C. State. If Pitt can win one of its two games against No. 17 Miami, throw in a victory next Wednesday against Wake Forest while the Tar Heels and Wolfpack sneak into the Top 25, now we’re talking.
But let’s cool it for a moment. Pitt still must avoid an upset Saturday against Florida State (6-13, 4-4) at the Pete.
Here are some more thoughts while you’re awaiting tipoff.
1. Thank you, portal
If Pitt’s season does end on a positive note, Capel will have the NCAA transfer portal to thank. Of the eight players who played the most significant minutes against Louisville on Wednesday, six started their collegiate careers at other schools.
“I think we’ve gotten lucky this year,” Capel said. “We’ve had transfers before that maybe didn’t work out for us. The previous couple years, it was a little more difficult because of the whole situation with covid where you couldn’t go out and see them. You couldn’t bring them to campus. So you didn’t get a chance to interact with them face to face.
“With all of these guys we have right now, we had an opportunity to do that. To go and visit them, to bring them on campus, to have them with us for 48 hours. Maybe we had a little better feel than the last couple years.”
Capel said there are no guarantees in recruiting, whether it’s from high school, junior college or the portal.
“It’s a crapshoot all the time,” he said. “You don’t know someone until you are with him all the time.”
2. Board crashing
We’re not talking about what Jerome Lane did 35 years ago.
Without John Hugley, rebounding will continue to be an area of concern for Pitt, which has allowed opponents an average of 11 offensive rebounds per game. Only Georgia Tech, Florida State and Syracuse have allowed more in the ACC.
Pitt has five players averaging at least four rebounds per game, led by Blake Hinson, who is 11th in the ACC (6.4).
“We all have to treat rebounding as what it is, a weakness for us,” point guard Nelly Cummings said. “We have to address that and grab all the loose basketballs we can.”
3. 3 is better than 2
Hugley’s absence has forced Pitt to find other scoring avenues, and a result appears to be the Panthers leading the ACC in 3-point attempts (487, 25.6 per game) and standing third in 3-pointers made per game (8.8).
But perhaps a more significant stat might be Pitt’s 3-point defense, with opponents only hitting 30.6% of their shots from beyond the arc. Especially considering the upcoming opponent.
4. What about FSU?
With four players averaging at least 10 points, Florida State won’t be easy to defend. Matthew Cleveland and Darin Green Jr. are 17th and 18th in the ACC in scoring (14.4 and 14.1). Green leads the conference in 3-point percentage (40.9%, 56 of 137).
In a close game, Pitt should try to avoid fouling Caleb Mills, who is hitting 85.7% (66 of 77) of his free throws.
At the age of 74, Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton recently reached two victory milestones: 400 (now 401) in 21 years with the Seminoles and 600 (now 601) in 35 years overall.
The Seminoles started 1-9 before recovering with victories against Notre Dame (twice), Louisville and Georgia Tech. They’ve been competitive in losses to No. 3 Purdue, 79-69, and No. 10 Virginia, 62-57 and 67-58.
A victory would make Pitt 7-2 in the ACC, its best start in conference games since compiling a 12-1 record in the Big East in 2010-2011. A 14-6 overall record would be Pitt’s best 20-game start since 2015-16.
5. It’s the little things
Pitt is 4-2 in conference games decided by single-digit margins, and a big reason is free-throw shooting.
Jamarius Burton, Nike Sibande, Cummings and Greg Elliott have combined to hit 90.6% of their foul shots (68 of 75) in eight ACC games. Burton gets to the line most often (31 of 35), and Cummings is a perfect 11 of 11. Sibande has missed one of 13, Elliott two of 16.