Last summer, beat writer Jonathan Bombulie made a series of predictions leading up to the start of the 2018-19 season. Some were OK. Some were hilariously off the mark. In this series, Bombulie will explain what he was thinking and where his logic went off course.
THE QUESTION
Carl Hagelin is entering the final year of his contract. When will his time with the Penguins end?
A. He’ll re-sign with the Penguins.
B. He’ll move on in free agency.
C. He’ll be traded during the season.
THE PREDICTION
B. He’ll move on in free agency.
THE RIGHT ANSWER
C. He’ll be traded during the season.
THE RATIONALE
• With Jake Guentzel and Matt Murray in line for significant raises and bottom-six centers Derick Brassard and Riley Sheahan both entering the final year of their contracts, the Penguins had more important things to spend scarce salary cap money on than a middle-six winger who averaged around nine goals per season. Therefore, an extension for Hagelin was unlikely.
• The Penguins wouldn’t trade Hagelin during the season, however, because they’d need more speed, not less, to be championship contenders.
READER REACTION
A sample of Facebook comments:
• “The Pens will probably let him walk. A trade is unlikely, since few teams would value him at his cost. His main asset is his speed, and he’ll likely lose some of it in his 30s.”
• “Hags could do the same thing that Horny did. He enjoys where he is and would like to stay longer, maybe? A shorter deal, say a two-year extension, for roughly the same amount. $4m a season for a top six forward isn’t expensive. His value isn’t necessarily in scoring. We all know this.”
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
• The Penguins sputtered out of the gate, and after a five-game losing streak in early November, general manager Jim Rutherford traded Hagelin to Los Angeles for winger Tanner Pearson, citing a need to freshen up a stagnant roster.
• Hagelin was flipped in February to Washington, where he signed a four-year, $11 million extension. Pearson was flipped to Vancouver for Erik Gudbranson at the trade deadline.
THE FLAWS IN THE LOGIC
• Predictions that the Penguins would trade Hagelin were based around the idea that they would need salary cap space to make another move or would need to deal from a position of strength to shore up a position of weakness. In reality, Hagelin was sent out to try to shake the team up after a poor start.
• Many of these predictions were also predicated on the idea that the Penguins were in the market for a scoring-wing left wing. That type of trade never really materialized. The closest thing was the addition of Jared McCann at the trade deadline.
LESSONS LEARNED
• Rutherford can be accused of many things, but sentimentality isn’t one of them. Twelve of the 20 players dressed for Game 6 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Final are now gone, including the entire HBK line.
