On the eve of training camp, let’s track Pitt football, week by week
Share this post:
The first horn is set to blow mid-morning Wednesday when Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi and his staff get down to the hot, sweaty business of football on the South Side.
How long will it take Pitt to reach its full potential? And what is the Panthers’ ceiling?
Is Pitt the team that Pro Football Focus said has no ACC preseason first-team stars? Only offensive tackle Matt Goncalves and kicker Ben Sauls (second team) and guard Blake Zubovic and cornerback M.J. Devonshire (third team) made the cut on PFF’s All-ACC team.
If Narduzzi even bothers to read such projections — he probably pays attention more than he wants anyone to know — he can’t wait to slam the disrespect card on the table hard enough to rattle the windows of his team’s training facility.
Pitt is lurking in the shadows at the start of Narduzzi’s ninth season. Most of the talk is about Florida State and Clemson competing for the ACC championship and a berth in the College Football playoff. Quarterbacks Jordan Travis of FSU, Drake Maye of North Carolina and Riley Leonard of Duke have garnered the greater share of attention.
Pitt’s total of 20 victories and an ACC championship the past two seasons is offset by the reality of losing six starters to the 2023 NFL Draft. They include All-American defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, ACC leading rusher Izzy Abanikanda and Jared Wayne, Pitt’s most reliable pass catcher.
Yet it should be noted that Kancey, Abanikanda, linebacker SirVocea Dennis and safety Brandon Hill did not play against UCLA in the Sun Bowl, a Pitt victory engineered by backup quarterback Nick Patti.
If Narduzzi can retool in a month and defeat a Power 5 bowl team, there should be little concern about his ability to assemble another winning squad in the span of an entire offseason.
Will Pitt win eight, nine or 10 games? Can we assume those six-victory seasons from early in the previous decade are nothing more than a sour memory for Pitt fans?
Here’s a week-by-week projection:
Wofford, Sept. 2
Wofford coach Shawn Watson was Pitt’s offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018, but he wasn’t retained after the offense stagnated in Kenny Pickett’s sophomore season. With six games left last season, Watson replaced former coach Josh Conklin, who was Narduzzi’s first defensive coordinator. Narduzzi said Watson “took me under his wing” when both were at Miami (Ohio) in 1990. Wofford was picked by Lindy’s Sports to finish seventh this season in the Southern Conference, but it won conference championships under Conklin in 2018 and 2019. Pitt has defeated four of its past five FCS opponents by a collective score of 184-38. This one should be easy, too.
Pitt 41, Wofford 3
Cincinnati, Sept. 9
When the teams were Big East members, Pitt lost four of five to the Bearcats from 2008-12, including the 45-44 heartbreaker in 2009. This game gains additional lustre because Cincinnati joined the Big 12 this season. But former coach Luke Fickell departed for Wisconsin, leaving Scott Satterfield with a team that took some serious hits through graduation and transfers.
Pitt 27, Cincinnati 13
At West Virginia Sept. 16
The Mountaineers surely have revenge on their mind after Pitt’s 38-31 victory last season at Acrisure Stadium. WVU appeared to be in good shape in a tie game in the fourth quarter when wide receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton couldn’t make an easy catch, and the ball popped into Devonshire’s hands for a game-deciding Pick 6. WVU opens with Penn State, Duquesne and Pitt. Feel sorry for coach Neal Brown if the Mountaineers aren’t 2-1.
Pitt 24, West Virginia 20
North Carolina, Sept. 23
Here is Phil Jurkovec’s opportunity to show he belongs in the same tier of ACC quarterbacks with the Tar Heels’ Maye, a projected NFL first-round choice. North Carolina allowed 40 sacks last season, but four of the five starting offensive linemen return. Pitt’s usually heavy-handed pass rush must be at its best.
North Carolina 31, Pitt 30
At Virginia Tech, Sept. 30
Most projections drop the Hokies near the bottom of the ACC standings. Virginia Tech dipped into the transfer portal for help on offense, but coach Brent Pry has a difficult rebuilding job after finishing 3-8 in his first season. Games are never easy in Lane Stadium, but Pitt can’t let this one get away.
Pitt 27, Virginia Tech 16
Louisville, Oct. 14
After an off week, Pitt gets a difficult test from a team that claimed an impressive 24-10 victory last season. Like Jurkovec, Louisville quarterback Jake Plummer is with his third school. He worked previously with coach Jeff Brohm at Purdue and spent last season at California. A hunch and another one-point loss.
Louisville 28, Pitt 27
At Wake Forest, Oct. 21
With the season on the brink, Pitt hits the road for the 2021 ACC Championship game rematch. There’s no Kenny Pickett to fake a slide this time, but the Panthers — and Narduzzi — will be angry after the Louisville debacle. The line will give Jurkovec more time to throw this week, and he’ll take advantage of it. Ben Sauls for the win.
Pitt 35, Wake Forest 33
At Notre Dame, Oct. 28
No one expects Pitt to win, which will be the fuel Narduzzi uses while addressing his team. Pitt defensive coordinator Randy Bates gets another crack at Irish quarterback Sam Hartman, who was intercepted four times and sacked five when he was Wake Forest’s quarterback against Pitt in the title game.
Pitt 21, Notre Dame 20
Florida State, Nov. 4
Plenty of hype for this one, featuring two ranked squads. But the Seminoles appear to have the most talented team in the ACC. Quarterback Jordan Travis can run and has thrown for more than 5,959 yards. Pro Football Focus gave him the highest grade among ACC offensive players last year.
Florida State 35, Pitt 21
Syracuse, at Yankee Stadium, Nov. 11
Pitt gets a break by staying out of Syracuse’s JMA Wireless (formerly Carrier) Dome. No matter where they play, Pitt has won eight of the past nine against the Orange.
Pitt 31, Syracuse 20
Boston College, Nov. 16
The Eagles are trying to recover from a 3-9 season, but they are optimistic about what quarterback Emmett Morehead can do after replacing Jurkovec. The Panthers can’t fall asleep this late in the season, and they probably won’t.
Pitt 27, Boston College 14
At Duke, Nov. 25
Pitt was the only team to defeat Duke after mid-October last year, but it wasn’t easy, 28-26, at home. Riley Leonard may be the third-best quarterback in the conference after Maye and Travis.
Duke 24, Pitt 22