Mark Madden: Tristan Jarry should be winner of Penguins goalie competition
The Penguins have been rotating goalies for a month, affecting a competition of sorts between Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray. No date is set for that competition’s conclusion. A decision must be made by the playoffs, likely shortly before.
But, right now, Jarry is the clear-cut winner.
Jarry’s goals-against average (2.31) ranks sixth in the NHL. His save percentage (.924) is fifth. Murray’s numbers — 2.85, .899 — are inferior.
Murray has played 35 games, Jarry 32. Each has had ample opportunity. If the stats aren’t the standard at this point, what is?
Jarry also is superior to Murray in the puckhandling department. Jarry’s ability in that regard saves the defense corps many steps, not to mention ample wear and tear.
This isn’t an anti-Murray screed. Murray hasn’t been awful.
Since Jan. 1, Murray’s numbers have improved. His goals-against average in that time frame is 2.65, Jarry’s 2.84. Murray’s save percentage for that period is .908, Jarry’s .907.
Murray is known for coming on strong late in a given campaign: His save percentage in March and April of the 2018-19 regular season was .930.
Since this is about who plays in the playoffs, Murray’s postseason record can’t be ignored. He was great in 2016 and ’17, as two Stanley Cup championships indicate. But Murray’s playoff stats dropped significantly in ’18 and ’19. His goals-against ballooned to 3.08 in last season’s opening-round sweep against the New York Islanders.
Jarry has never played an NHL playoff game.
But if postseason experience and accomplishment is to be tightly clung to, well, that wasn’t the case in ’16.
Marc-Andre Fleury had won a Cup in ’09 but was hurt when the ’16 playoffs began. Murray got hot and, save one start for Fleury in the Eastern Conference finals vs. Tampa Bay, the net belonged to Murray. Murray had never played in the NHL playoffs.
In ’17, Murray got injured. Fleury got hot. He eliminated Washington. But when Murray healed, he went back in.
Coach Mike Sullivan and his staff have no blueprint when it comes to managing the goaltending. Their instincts have served the Penguins well.
What criteria are being used now? When will the decision be made? How long of a leash will be afforded the starter?
A playoff starter needs to be picked at least a couple of weeks out. Whoever it is needs to play several games in a row before the first round.
The leash question is tricky. An ineffective starter can’t be allowed to sabotage his team’s chances too long, but it’s not wise to keep jerking goalies in and out, either.
As for what criteria will be used, I have no idea.
If Jarry started and struggled, Murray would be less likely to come in and sparkle than if the situation were reversed. Jarry would keep focused as the backup. Murray would be discouraged. That’s an odd argument in favor of Murray starting, but a logical one.
I would start Jarry. He’s been better over a long sample size. Any statistical argument on Murray’s behalf involves fragmentation of said stats or going too far back.
I’m a big believer Jarry’s puckhandling could contribute mightily, especially against a team with a fast, heavy forecheck like Washington. (If matchups play a role in deciding who plays goal, it would only apply in the first round. If a goaltender wins the first-round series, the second-round matchup wouldn’t get him yanked.)
It just feels like Sullivan will start Murray in the playoffs, almost no matter what. Sullivan couldn’t be faulted for that.
Murray has a postseason resume that is slightly checkered but mostly impressive. He has proven he can handle the grind of playing so frequently in a high-pressure situation.
I didn’t like the third goal Murray conceded Tuesday night at home against Ottawa. But at least the Penguins won.
The rotation accomplished one thing noteworthy: Sullivan knows he has two legit goalies who both can be trusted. (Nobody thought that about Jarry before this season.)
It would be odd if the playoffs begin and the Penguins’ top goalie statistically is on the bench. It would be more unusual still if Jarry is among the NHL’s stat leaders, as he has been for much of the season.
It also might work.
But if whoever starts the playoffs struggles, Sullivan has to know when to use the hook. At worst, he has to get the decision right the second time around.
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