Mark Madden: To reach experts' expectation, Steelers must win 1st 2 games, sweep Ravens

In Pittsburgh, sports fans and the attendant media aren’t brilliant at much. But overrating and overestimating have proven to be specialties.

The Penguins had a “great” pre-playoffs camp, whatever that means. They were “flying out there,” especially Evgeni Malkin. That provided pretext for a long playoff run. Actual evidence like losing eight of 11 before the covid break and being swept by the New York Islanders in last year’s first round were ignored. So the Penguins fell victim to their own hubris, as well as ours, not to mention No. 24 seed Montreal. Malkin shot 0 for 21 from the field.

Next season will see us continue to slam the window shut on our own fingers.

The Pirates lost 93 games last year and slashed payroll to the bone. Yet many slobbered optimism at the random nature of a 60-game season and cited great young players such as Bryan Reynolds, who is hitting .181. The Pirates stink. That was always going to happen.

The Pirates have the fewest wins in MLB. But they’ve split their last 20 games, so … yay!

That brings us to the Steelers.

The Steelers missed the playoffs the last two years. True, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was injured last year. In 2018, he wasn’t.

The Steelers look like a wild-card team: Nine or 10 victories. That’s not bad.

But my evaluation is perceived as an insult by those, including “experts,” who proclaim the Steelers an 11- or 12-win team. The notion that they’re the third-best team in the AFC behind Kansas City and Baltimore has gained momentum. So has the idea that the Steelers could win the AFC North if opposing defenses (cliche alert) “figure out” Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.

(BTW, that last part is a cliche because it’s true. That often happens. Don’t rule it out.)

The Steelers have a lot of strengths. They have a lot of holes, too.

Roethlisberger is back, as detailed in the never-ending, made-for-TV docudrama, “Breaking Ben.” He looks good, just like Malkin. But he hasn’t yet thrown a competitive pass after having major reconstructive elbow surgery, and he is 38.

The Steelers don’t have a No. 1 receiver. They might not be able to run the ball consistently. The offensive line is decrepit and crumbling.

The defense might be the NFL’s best. But that didn’t get them 11 or 12 wins last season.

So, let’s jump from the intangible to the tangible. (Says me.) Here’s what the Steelers must do to win 11 or 12 games, challenge for the AFC North and be established as a Super Bowl contender. (Hey, let’s hope. #BestForBusiness)

• The Steelers must start 2-0. The New York Giants and Denver stink. Monday night is a chance for the Steelers to absorb one of their semi-regular devastating losses as a road favorite.

• The toughest part of the Steelers’ schedule is Weeks 3-9. They play Houston, at Tennessee, Philadelphia, Cleveland, at Baltimore and at Dallas. The Steelers must go at least 4-2 over that stretch. If they can’t do that against good teams, they’re not capable of winning the division. That would put the Steelers at 6-2 halfway through the season.

• The Steelers have to sweep both games vs. Baltimore. The teams play Oct. 25 at Baltimore and Nov. 26 (Thanksgiving night) at Heinz Field.

That’s what the Steelers must do: All of the above. Two out of three won’t cut it.

I predicted 9-7 in this space earlier in the week. I predicted 10-6 on my show. I will later cite whatever comes good. Neither prognostication is absurd.

Forecasting 11 or 12 wins strikes me as just that, absurd. Typical Pittsburgh hype and unfounded optimism. The Steelers are not a legit Super Bowl contender. If they played Kansas City in a best-of-101 series, they might get swept in 51 games.

That’s right now. Could the Steelers grow into better?

Perhaps. Roethlisberger has to truly revisit his prime, which would be great fodder for the 16th season of “Breaking Ben.” Outside linebacker T.J. Watt needs to find another level and be the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. He’s certainly capable, and it runs in the family.