With the Steelers season set to begin Monday, egregiously optimistic predictions ricochet around the football media.

Ben Roethlisberger is back. The defense will be even better. A deep and vertical receiving corps will maximize the red zone. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson will backslide. Cleveland and Cincinnati will stink again. This all adds up to 11 or 12 wins and maybe the AFC North crown. It’s widely said the Steelers are the AFC’s No. 3 team behind Kansas City and Baltimore.

Sorry, but I just don’t see it.

Much of the above figures to be true, but there are more reasons to think the Steelers are a nine-win team and a borderline wild-card contender.

The aging, fading offensive line is more likely to be a disaster than it is dominant. David DeCastro, 30, has barely practiced and will miss Monday’s opener at the New York Giants. Maurkice Pouncey, 31, will play on a torn meniscus. Alejandro Villanueva, 31, seems on his last legs. The starter at right tackle is Zach Banner, who got cut by a 0-16 team. The best bet is Matt Feiler, and he’s switching positions.

Roethlisberger’s savvy should keep him safe. But bad run blocking means a bad running game. If Roethlisberger has to throw 675 times like in 2018, that’s not good.

The Steelers lack depth all over the lineup. That’s true with many teams. Under a salary cap, you pick your poison.

But the Steelers’ hopes disintegrate if any one of a number of players gets injured for a long stretch: Roethlisberger, obviously. T.J. Watt. Minkah Fitzpatrick. Devin Bush, because inside ‘backer is a wasteland beyond Bush and Vince Williams.

More players check in at a level not far below: DeCastro. Pouncey. Bud Dupree. Joe Haden and Steven Nelson at cornerback. Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt on the defensive line. Running back James Conner, who will get hurt.

For the Steelers to maximize, injuries must be absolutely minimal. A lot must go right.

The Steelers don’t have a No. 1 receiver or anyone with the real potential to develop into a legit version thereof. JuJu Smith-Schuster proved last year that he couldn’t. Diontae Johnson? Maybe, but probably not. Good rookie season, though.

The defense carried the team last season after Roethlisberger’s elbow went wonky and should be great again.

But it can’t be better. It led the NFL in sacks (54) and takeaways (38). How can it improve? If the Steelers improve, the offense must be the catalyst. But what happens on defense if the ball starts bouncing differently and the takeaways get cut in half?

Watt is capable of elevating himself and, perhaps, even the defense. He was first-team All-Pro at outside linebacker last season. At 25, he seems poised to be NFL Defensive Player of the Year or at least be heavily considered. Watt is that good.

Roethlisberger is being counted on mightily, and that’s fair. He makes more money than anybody else. But Roethlisberger is 38 and coming off major reconstructive elbow surgery. He’s in great shape and has, by all accounts, had a good camp. (So did the Penguins. So did Evgeni Malkin.)

Roethlisberger again could be one of the NFL’s top five quarterbacks. But that’s assuming a lot.

Here’s something else that can be assumed: If the Steelers miss the playoffs, Roethlisberger absorbs all the blame regardless of his stats and performance. That’s the nature of his position and the nature of Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have too many variables to be considered anything more than likely for a wild-card spot, and it’s a shaky likely. If they are the AFC’s third-best team, they’re a far cry from defending Super Bowl champ Kansas City. If the Steelers and Chiefs played a best-of-seven series, Patrick Mahomes and Co. would sweep.

It has been forgotten the Steelers have missed the playoffs for two straight years. Last year, it’s because Roethlisberger was hurt. But the year before, he wasn’t.

The Steelers made a few good moves at their roster’s fringe, recycling quarterback Josh Dobbs and safety Sean Davis. Dustin Colquitt provides an upgrade at punter over Jordan Berry.

Dobbs isn’t anything resembling a quarterback who will ever start. But he’s better than Duck Hodges. If the Steelers have Dobbs last year, they win at least one more game.

The Steelers are a 9-7 team. They’re closer to 10-6 than they are to 8-8.

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