Mark Madden: Sizing up Penguins, Lightning back-to-back Stanley Cup teams

Tampa Bay has won the Stanley Cup a second straight time, like the Penguins did in 2016 and ’17. You can compare the teams, but the accomplishment is exactly the same.

Penguins fans grouse that Tampa Bay cheated the salary cap because winger Nikita Kucherov didn’t play during the regular season (thus not counting against the cap) but returned for (and dominated) the playoffs. The Lightning circumvented the cap by $18 million.

But if a rule isn’t broken, no cheating occurred. The Lightning was OK by the parameters of the CBA agreed to by the NHL and the NHL Players Association.

Besides, Kucherov was hurt. (For a while. Probably.)

It’s also noted Tampa Bay played two shortened regular seasons. True, but that was intertwined with the considerable demands of dealing with the pandemic.

Each team won 32 playoff games en route to their two Cups. Tampa Bay faced only one elimination game: Game 7 of this season’s semifinal against the New York Islanders. The Penguins dealt with four elimination games: two in 2016 and two in 2017.

That means the Lightning was more dominant and/or the Penguins were more resilient.

The real story comes next year, when Tampa Bay tries to become the first team to win three straight Stanley Cups since the New York Islanders won four from 1980-83.

Here’s betting against the Lightning. They’re great, but the Penguins were exhausted when they tried the same in 2018, and in 2010 after playing in the previous two finals.

Comparing the teams boils down to hockey’s two most important components: goaltending and center.

Tampa has the better goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy, this year’s Conn Smythe Trophy winner as playoff MVP.

The Penguins had the better centers in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Matt Murray was good then (but not since). Marc-Andre Fleury was good then (but better now). Vasilevskiy is a generational talent. He’s 6-foot-3 but plays even bigger. Vasilevskiy is technically sound, but his athleticism lets him improvise as needed. At 26, he’s got two Cups, a Vezina Trophy (top goalie), two first-team All-Star selections and now playoff MVP. He’s a phenom.

But at center, it’s not close. Crosby and Malkin are Hall of Famers. Brayden Point is Tampa Bay’s No. 1 center and had 14 goals in 23 playoff games this year, but he’d be the Penguins’ third-line center (and would be hard-pressed to outplay Nick Bonino in 2016).

The wild card in this discussion is Kucherov.

No Penguins winger in ’16 and ’17 compares to what Kucherov did in these last two playoffs. Crosby was playoff MVP two straight times, but his numbers are bettered by Kucherov’s.

In ’16 and ’17, Crosby had 14 goals and 32 assists in 48 playoff games.

In ’20 and ’21, Kucherov had 15 goals and 41 assists in 48 playoff games. He is one of three players to register 30-plus points in consecutive postseasons. The other two are Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky. (It’s amazing Kucherov didn’t get playoff MVP either this year or last.)

Crosby plays a much better 200-foot game. He’s a top-five player all-time. Kucherov isn’t.

But Kucherov is superior on the power play. He had four goals and 27 assists on the PP over Tampa Bay’s back-to-back Cup runs, four goals and 15 assists this year alone.

Kucherov won the regular-season MVP and scoring title in 2019. He’s been a first-team All-Star twice, a second-team All-Star once. He’s got 547 points in 515 career regular-season games, 127 points in 113 career postseason games.

Yet, he’s rarely mentioned in the same class as Crosby, Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, etc. Perhaps now he will be.

If Tampa Bay wins a third straight Cup next season, they get the nod over the Penguins from ’16 and ’17. But that’s going to be tough.

The salary cap will stay flat. Kucherov’s $9.5 million cap hit will count this time. Not only will they not be able to retain free agents such as Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow and David Savard, the Lightning might have to shed players to get under the cap.

Tampa has Vasilevskiy and Kucherov. The Penguins had Crosby and Malkin. Victor Hedman has a better resume than Kris Letang atop each team’s depth chart at defense, and Letang missed the ’17 playoffs. But the blue lines are mostly comparable, as is the depth.

It’s close, but the Penguins are the pick because of Crosby.