Mark Madden: Penguins' window might be closing, but it's not quite shut

The Pittsburgh Penguins weren’t supposed to win the Stanley Cup in 2016. Their odds were 13-1 at season’s start. Four teams were more favored.

The Penguins hadn’t made a Stanley Cup final since winning in 2009. They got swept in their only conference final (2013).

It wasn’t unreasonable to feel their window had closed, and the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin-led core would be remembered as underachieving.

But the Penguins switched coaches: Mike Sullivan replaced Mike Johnston. GM Jim Rutherford made trades that turned his team into the NHL’s fastest. Sullivan put faith in several call-ups from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, where he had guided the Penguins’ top minor league affiliate. Everything coalesced quickly and dramatically.

The Penguins won the Stanley Cup, then won again in ’17. The Crosby/Malkin core was suddenly elite beyond individual honors. It was the first time a team won consecutive Cups since Detroit in 1997 and ’98 and the first time it got done in a capped NHL.

The Penguins lost in the second round to eventual champ Washington in ’18. It was a tough six-game series. If the Penguins survive, they probably win again.

But the Penguins faded last season. They made the playoffs with just four points to spare, then got swept by the New York Islanders in the first round. When the current season got paused, the Penguins were just six points safe and had lost eight of 11.

It’s not confusing like it was from 2010-15 when the Penguins’ stars were in their prime and expectations were reasonably high. The Penguins’ core is aging. No team wins forever, especially when a salary cap is used.

It’s possible the Penguins can win again. Their stars are still formidable. The team has lots of playoff experience. But it’s also possible the window really has closed.

Here’s what’s happened since 2017:

• Matt Murray isn’t playing as well. Did Murray do better when he was pushed by Marc-Andre Fleury, who left after that Cup in ’17?

• Phil Kessel’s form dipped. He played more outside the system. The things he doesn’t do (hit, block shots) became more evident. His minuses mounted. His shortcomings trickled down. Kessel wore out his welcome, just like in Boston and Toronto. It was time for Kessel to go, though he’s yet to be replaced on the power play’s left half-wall.

• Sullivan’s message wasn’t as fresh, so it wasn’t as effective. That was especially true in 2018-19. The current season has seen the Penguins buy in more.

• The energy level dipped. That was inevitable. Call-ups like Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary kept playing well but couldn’t imbue the same electricity indefinitely.

• The bottom six was decimated by losing Nick Bonino to free agency and trading Carl Hagelin. Rutherford probably wishes he hadn’t dealt Hagelin, who doesn’t often score but constantly fuels the forecheck. Rutherford was trying to shake up the dressing room during a period of lethargy, but shot the wrong hostage.

• Chris Kunitz was running on empty during the late stages of his Penguins tenure but was still a catalyst and leader. His loss hurt more than one would think.

• The defense isn’t as fast, or as deep. Losing Trevor Daley was damaging. He was extremely fast and legitimately can play either side. His utility helped, as did that of Ron Hainsey during his brief stay. Justin Schultz has been often hurt and largely ineffective the last two seasons. Olli Maatta was ruined by illness and injury.

Things that go bad can go well again. Patric Hornqvist stumbled in ’18-19 but got back on track this season. The Penguins’ bottom six isn’t as good as it was in ’16 and ’17 but has improved from last campaign. Tristan Jarry isn’t Fleury, but his emergence gives the Penguins decent goaltending depth. Jarry has outplayed Murray slightly.

The stars haven’t disappointed, except when they’ve been hurt. If Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang aren’t at the top of their games, they’re fairly close.

The moral of the story: You can’t win forever. It’s likely that simple.

Is the Penguins’ window still open? Well, they’re currently 13-1 in some sports books. That’s a familiar number. The window seems like it’s closing. But it seemed like that before. It’s definitely not slammed shut.