Mark Madden: Penguins find themselves on the brink because they blink

The Penguins didn’t play horribly Monday. The Penguins are a good team.

But they blink.

There are many reasons the New York Islanders beat the Penguins, 3-2, in double overtime and lead the first-round series 3-2.

Tristan Jarry isn’t a No. 1 goaltender. The stars have aged out of dominating playoff games or even making consistent impact. They’re not fast or skilled enough to be based purely on speed and skill, as they prefer. The roster is flawed given where the NHL is headed.

But mostly, the Penguins crumble at decisive moments. When the game becomes a staredown, they blink. They’re not mentality monsters anymore.

It’s not quite choking. But it’s not far from it. The Penguins don’t seem to understand that it’s no longer 2016 and ’17. They’re not that team, and it’s not that time.

The Islanders don’t blink. The Islanders make few mistakes. When they do, they’re mostly minor and they manage to cover up.

The Penguins blink. Monday’s game provided undeniable proof.

The Penguins made three horrific mistakes, and they all ended up in their net.

An ill-advised pinch late in the first period left winger Jake Guentzel defending Islanders forward Anthony Beauvillier one-on-one. That goal tied the score 1-1 with 55 seconds before intermission. How can that possibly happen in the final minute of a period?

Brian Dumoulin made a turnover that allowed Jordan Eberle to tie the score 2-2 at 8:50 of the third period.

The game was decided when Jarry’s once-vaunted puck-handling betrayed him to hand Josh Bailey an easy finish 51 ticks into the second overtime.

The Islanders don’t make mistakes like that. They play disciplined, shift after shift. They manage risk vs. reward. They consider score and situation. To beat the Islanders, you have to earn every single thing. They don’t give their opponents anything.

On Monday, the Penguins won 53% of the draws. They got outhit by a scant 47-46. The power play was 1 for 2. They outshot the Islanders, 50-28. The Penguins closed the gap, and then some, on a lot of problems that had plagued them.

None of it meant a thing because they blinked.

It’s a troubling habit but not a new one.

The Penguins are 0-2 in overtime during this series. (They now have lost five OT playoff games in a row.) The Penguins have scored consecutive goals just twice in this series. They have led by two goals for a total of 5:43. They have relinquished leads six times. On Monday, the Penguins went more than 53 minutes without scoring. They had the best regular-season home mark in the NHL but are 1-2 at PPG Paints Arena in this series.

They defeated the Islanders six of eight times during the regular season, but that’s meaningless now. The Islanders have a playoff mentality, playoff structure and playoff discipline.

The Penguins blink.

The Penguins could salvage this series. But that means reversing a trend that’s been building since 2018, which is when the team’s championship window closed even though fanboys insist otherwise. It means stopping everything discussed here dead in its tracks. That won’t happen in a 48-hour period, especially because the Penguins don’t see the problems.

But if the Penguins are one-and-done for a third straight postseason, GM Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke will make all involved see the light because the roster will be unrecognizable come training camp.

All possibilities will be considered in this space during the days and weeks to come. But goaltending is a good place to start.

Jarry just isn’t good enough to start, let alone be a playoff workhorse. It’s harsh to say that he is responsible for losing two games in this series, but it’s not inaccurate.

The Penguins mostly outplayed the Islanders on Monday, outshot them badly and had some momentum in overtime. Jarry’s primary job was to not blow the game.

Jarry did. He blinked. It’s not far-fetched to think the Penguins already could have won this series if not for Jarry.