Mark Madden: Missing playoffs would hurt Penguins economically but be ideal for rebuild

For the Penguins, the best thing would be to miss the playoffs and begin a rebuilding process that gets pushed back and made harder every year they strive in vain for “one more run.”

The absolute worst-case scenario is to be in contention for a postseason spot come the NHL’s trade deadline, hold onto pending free agents Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, then miss the playoffs and let them walk in the offseason for no compensation.

Malkin and Letang will absolutely leave. They won’t (and shouldn’t) take hometown discounts. They know they’re gone. So do the organization and dressing room. (It’s not said out loud.)

Malkin (if healthy) and Letang could each fetch big assets from a Stanley Cup contender at the trade deadline.

You don’t believe that? The Penguins gave up a first-round pick and two prospects for 35-year-old Jarome Iginla in 2013. They gave up a first-round pick and their top defensive prospect for borderline top-six winger Jason Zucker in 2020. Legit contenders overpay.

Missing the playoffs would hurt the Penguins economically.

But this team is nothing remotely resembling a Stanley Cup contender. (Although it’s possible to have a lucky run like Montreal did to make last season’s final.)

It’s easy to say, “There’s always a chance with Sidney Crosby, Malkin and Letang.”

But not anymore.

It’s more accurate to say, “There’s not much of a chance with Tristan Jarry, Evan Rodrigues and Brian Boyle.” (More on Jarry later.)

Crosby won’t like the notion of trading Malkin and Letang, or them departing via free agency.

Crosby has made mammoth contributions to the franchise. So have Malkin and Letang. But you get in trouble when you listen to players.

Chicago captain Jonathan Toews campaigned against a rebuild prior to last season.

But the Blackhawks missed the playoffs last season. They’re currently 2-9-2. They signed big-name free-agent defenseman Seth Jones for too much and too long. They traded for a 36-year-old goalie, ex-Penguin Marc-Andre Fleury. Chicago futilely keeps angling for “one more run,” and it just isn’t there. Toews is a lousy GM.

Players always think they can win, especially those who have won before. It’s up to management to recognize when they can’t.

Would Crosby ask to be traded if the Penguins broke up that old gang of his?

The key word is “ask.” That’s the only way the Penguins trade Crosby: If he publicly demands it. If he makes himself the catalyst for his departure. That is so unlike Crosby. He’s a Mario Lemieux/Steve Yzerman one-team type of guy, anyway.

It would be understandable if the Penguins try to eke out a 16th straight playoff berth. Mike Sullivan is an excellent coach capable of making a mediocre team overachieve. The aforementioned financial ramifications must be considered. Contending teams with star players sell more tickets, even if they’re not contending for anything besides a first-round exit.

But every season of a fool’s errand digs the hole deeper.

Detroit, Chicago and Los Angeles saw their championship teams organically disintegrate. Why would it go any different for the Penguins? This isn’t anybody’s fault.

The Penguins are 4-3-3. That doesn’t look too bad given their injuries and illness. But it doesn’t look too good given their just completed eight-game homestand.

The Penguins are last in the Metro Division. The standings don’t care about injuries and illness.

The loser point makes it difficult to gain ground. Since the 2005-06 season, 75% of the teams that hold playoff spots at Thanksgiving end up keeping them at season’s end.

So, the Penguins will have a decent idea of where they’re going in a little under three weeks.

It’s hard to imagine them going far with Jarry as the No. 1 goaltender. He can’t be trusted, not after last season’s playoff debacle.

Jarry’s current stats are decent enough: He ranks 14th in save percentage at .925, 15th in goals-against average at 2.33. That’s middle of the pack.

But he’s the master of the blown lead. Jarry makes every save but the one that’s necessary. He is incompetent at shootouts, having conceded five goals in seven attempts.

Jarry’s shootout form looks even worse than his numbers. He doesn’t get anywhere near the puck. He stabs and flounders.

If the Penguins want to squeak into the playoffs, Sullivan should consider replacing Jarry with Casey DeSmith for shootouts. Worry about winning, not Jarry’s optics.

If the Penguins want to miss the playoffs — as perhaps they should — things in goal are fine as they are. Those lost shootout points will add up.