Mark Madden: If Penguins get to Toronto healthy — a big if — they're legit Cup contenders

The Penguins don’t have many problems. But as they open training camp with the Stanley Cup playoffs to (we hope) begin Aug. 1, the main hitch is: Teams won’t quarantine during camp. The Penguins need to be healthy before arriving at the Toronto bubble. Issues will be more difficult to work out there, or just before leaving for there.

So far, so bad: The Penguins announced nine players will miss the start of camp because of “potential secondary exposure to an individual who had contact with a person that has tested positive for the covid-19 virus.” This is being referred to as an “abundance of caution.” It could also be referred to as “proving Madden’s point.”

But if the Penguins get to Toronto with a bare minimum of pandemic-related problems, their chances are as good as anyone’s.

The thirty-something stars are rested. The injuries, a big issue all season, have abated. Jake Guentzel is healed. The Penguins, on paper, might be the NHL’s best team.

But sliding to the fifth seed didn’t help. A spot in the round robin among the Eastern Conference’s top four seeds would have given the Penguins a no-risk shot at the No. 1 seed, which is good as gold with reseeding conducted after every round.

Including the Penguins, there are five Eastern Conference teams that could win the Stanley Cup. The Penguins will likely have to beat three of those just to reach the Stanley Cup Final. That’s the effect of reseeding: The Penguins’ bracket can’t get busted.

Coach Mike Sullivan has mostly good problems to deal with. Like which line functions as his third, Jared McCann centering Patrick Marleau and Patric Hornqvist, or Teddy Blueger between Zach Aston-Reese and Brandon Tanev? Each of those trios is third-line caliber and could easily prosper with the corresponding minutes.

Matchups might dictate, but McCann’s line figures to be third, because the members of Blueger’s line will absorb heavier minutes on the penalty kill.

The power play conjures debate, having converted 19.9% of the time to rank 16th during the regular season. That’s stunningly mediocre given the talent.

The Penguins haven’t replaced Phil Kessel in the left circle, with the opposition PK leaning heavily to its left to deal with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Moving Crosby or Malkin to the Kessel spot is being suggested, but that takes one of your two best players away from his strength (but gets both Guentzel and Hornqvist out there).

My answer: Put Bryan Rust there. He’s not traditional for that role but is a right-handed shot with a career-best 27 goals in 55 games. Would he get respect from foes, thus creating room for Crosby and Malkin on the other side? Good question.

Then there’s the Conor Sheary debate: Should he be on Crosby’s line along with Guentzel?

But there’s no debate: That’s going to happen. It should, at the start. That line has performed well before, and it’s Crosby’s preference.

If Sheary doesn’t produce, Jason Zucker jumps to Crosby’s line. But then too many parts start moving. Sheary on Crosby’s line makes the rest of the depth chart up front fall together so much more easily.

Matt Murray is a question mark. He’s also the Penguins’ only choice in goal, at least initially. Tristan Jarry’s first NHL playoff game shouldn’t come after a layoff of over four months. The two goaltenders performed relatively evenly during the season, but Murray’s playoff record gets him the nod, and a fairly long leash.

Then again, Murray had no playoff record when he steered the Penguins to his first Stanley Cup in 2016. And there’s no denying Murray’s ceiling since he won his second Cup in ’17 is above average, no better. He’s not done as well without Marc-Andre Fleury to push him. That’s what the stats say.

Murray is the most clichéd topic. But also the biggest.

On defense, the Penguins need Jack Johnson to maintain his mediocrity and Justin Schultz to play much better. But the emergence of rookie John Marino gives the Penguins three strong right-handed defensemen, an absolute luxury in today’s hockey.

The variables duly noted, there is zero chance the Penguins get upset by Montreal in the preliminary round best-of-five. The Canadiens stink. They know they stink. Most of them don’t want to play. Top-six forward Max Domi might opt out because he’s diabetic. The Penguins had almost a full squad at their informal workouts. Until recently, the Canadiens barely had a starting lineup.

Penguins in three games. Then the real fun starts, covid-19 permitting.