Mark Madden: Forget the deck chairs. Goaltending is what could sink Penguins

The Penguins faithful and the attendant media have spent most of their time recently sweating what player the Penguins could lose to Seattle in the NHL’s expansion draft and any ancillary moves the team might make.

What everybody should be concerned about is the Penguins’ goaltending. NHL free agency starts July 28, and that’s a problem that needs to be solved. It’s probably the top priority for GM Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke.

The Penguins played well enough to eliminate the New York Islanders in the first round of the just-completed playoffs, but Tristan Jarry blew it. The locker room and organization said all the right things in the aftermath, but that doesn’t change what happened.

Afterward, I wrote in this space: “Jarry should never play for the Penguins again. The fans won’t forgive him. His teammates won’t trust him. He was responsible for three of the four losses in the series vs. the Islanders. Jarry was so bad, it’s difficult to judge others.”

That hasn’t changed, either. If you think it has, wait ‘til Jarry next concedes a bad goal at home.

If the organization truly thinks its championship window is still open, the Penguins simply can’t go into 2021-22 keeping the status quo in the blue paint. It is absolute folly to think a playoff series can be won with Jarry and Casey DeSmith as the options, let alone a Stanley Cup.

It’s easy to say Jarry is better than he played against the Islanders, but what if he’s not? He’s got no NHL track record to cite beyond one season starting and part of another splitting.

Jarry’s glove got weaker. He played too deep in his net. He developed the same flaws Matt Murray had, which calls the teachings of goalie coach Mike Buckley into question. (The organization has said all the right things about Buckley, too.)

Jarry can be stupid. Some of his puckhandling decisions defy belief, as displayed in the second overtime of Game 5 during that series loss to the Islanders.

If the Penguins really believe they can win, they need better in goal. To gamble that Jarry gets better after that first-round debacle does a good team a disservice.

Unfortunately, getting another goalie won’t be simple.

The Penguins had only about $4 million cap space available headed into the expansion draft. Losing Marcus Pettersson, Brandon Tanev or Jason Zucker would be a godsend in that regard. It’s being reported that Tanev and his $3.5-million cap hit will go to the Kraken.

So, the Penguins can’t get in a bidding war for the top free-agent goalies. Boston’s Tuukka Rask and Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer figure to return to their teams, anyway.

Seattle won’t be drafting a veteran netminder to flip to the Penguins. The Kraken appears to be selecting three younger (and cheaper) goalies, most notably Washington’s Vitek Vanecek. Vanecek started 36 games for the Capitals last year and compiled solid stats.

That’s OK. The Penguins couldn’t afford the cap hit some of the other exposed goalies carry, from Montreal’s Carey Price at the top end ($10.5 million through 2026) to Dallas’ Ben Bishop at the bottom ($4.9 million through 2023).

So, the Penguins might be shopping in the discount bin, and even possible free-agent gets like Toronto’s Frederik Anderson or Arizona’s Antti Rantta won’t come cheap. A $4 million cap hit seems a conservative estimate.

Perhaps the Penguins swap for a goalie. But they don’t have a ton of trade capital unless they make a truly significant deal. It would be almost impossible to trade Jarry. The NHL’s GMs all have TVs. They saw how Jarry folded against the Islanders.

The Penguins may have to make a cap dump before they make a move for a goaltender — and probably before they make any moves at all.

Or perhaps they won’t.

If the Penguins start 2021-22 with the same goaltending as last year, maybe it won’t be because they want to. Maybe it will be because they don’t have another choice.

They won’t have a chance, either.