Mark Madden: Dominoes falling unfavorably for Penguins season

As the Pittsburgh Penguins prepare to open a new season, a lot of dominoes seem poised to fall, not all of them good.

With Evgeni Malkin out for two months (probably three) and Sidney Crosby out for four games (probably eight to 10), the Penguins must avoid not burying themselves in the season’s early going.

The bottom six is weak because it’s missing Jeff Carter and Evan Rodrigues. The top six is weak because it contains Carter and Rodrigues.

Carter was red hot after being acquired from Los Angeles at last season’s trade deadline, netting 13 goals in 20 games (including playoffs).

But Carter is 36 and not likely to replicate that production, or even half of it. Carter benefited from the adrenaline of joining a contender and especially from favorable matchups that resulted from foes rightly paying more attention to Crosby and Malkin. Carter also won’t set the table for likely linemates Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust the same way Crosby does.

As for Rodrigues, he had seven goals in 35 games last season and often was scratched. Suddenly, he’s on the second line. Necessity is a mother.

If the Penguins were healthy, they would be a great bet to make the playoffs for a 16th straight season.

But, being crippled by injury, they face an uphill climb in a deep Metropolitan Division. The Metro has six teams that seem legit playoff contenders.

As mentioned in this space, coach Mike Sullivan almost certainly will utilize his preferred high-octane style no matter who’s in the lineup.

Combine that, the injuries and the residue of goaltender Tristan Jarry’s disastrous playoff, and it’s logical to worry about the Penguins digging an early hole.

In the Penguins’ first exhibition game, they outshot Columbus, 12-2, in the first period but trailed 1-0 when Jarry leaked in a bad goal. Rinse and repeat. The Penguins will have trouble scoring, at least until Crosby returns. (And what if Crosby plays but his wrist problems linger?)

Let’s look even further down the road.

Malkin and Kris Letang are in the last year of their contracts. To think either will take a hometown discount to re-up with the Penguins is fanciful, but that’s what the franchise will want. Malkin and Letang can get more elsewhere and probably will.

The Penguins will “try” to keep both, but that’s for PR’s sake. (Letang will be better moving forward. His success isn’t necessarily stats-based. His minutes are hard to replace, his duties difficult to do.)

So, what if the Penguins are out of the playoff race at the trade deadline? It’s certainly a possibility. Do they trade Malkin and/or Letang?

The Penguins didn’t consider doing so this past offseason for several reasons: It’s not what Crosby wants. Tickets need to be sold. Malkin and Letang obviously make them better.

Return would have been minimal this past offseason. The main benefit would have been getting their cap hits off the books: Malkin’s is $9.5 million, Letang’s $7.25 million.

But Malkin and Letang will have much bigger value at the trade deadline. (That assumes 100% health, or at least close.) If a contender is convinced a big addition could put them over the top, they might overpay.

Could Malkin or Letang fetch a first-round pick? Probably. After all, since 2013 the Penguins have traded first-round choices for Kasperi Kapanen, Jason Zucker, Derrick Brassard, Ryan Reaves, David Perron and Jarome Iginla.

Lots of NHL teams face decisions like this every year at the trade deadline. It just seems foreign to the Penguins because of their playoff streak.

Rebuilding also seems foreign to the Penguins. But a bad start might topple that first domino.