Football Footnotes: There’s no reason to bet on the Steelers Saturday, so just go ahead and do so

Tim Benz
Friday, Dec. 15, 2023 5:46 a.m. | Friday, Dec. 15, 2023 5:46 a.m.

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Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky is hit Dec. 7 as he throws against the New England Patriots in Pittsburgh.

After losing back-to-back games against a pair of two-win teams, there is no reason to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers to win Saturday in Indianapolis.

Hence, I’m picking the Steelers to win Saturday in Indianapolis.

That’s the way the NFL has been the past five to 10 years. That’s the way the Steelers have been the past 10 to 15 years under Mike Tomlin.

In both cases, when a team looks to be at its worst, a dead fish that has just washed ashore, that’s when they upset a team they shouldn’t beat.

Hey, just look at what the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots did to the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. They both came to Pittsburgh with only two victories and took out a Steelers team in a playoff spot with seven wins.

Usually, in the NFL, as soon as a trend starts to develop, bet the other way. So, for our weekly “Football Footnotes” post this week, here are as many logical reasons as I could come up with to pick the Steelers on Saturday afternoon to back up my illogical rationale of picking them for no good reason.

‘Typical Tomlin win’

For as much as we label those upset defeats against the Cards and Pats as “typical Tomlin losses,” winning a game after dropping those two would be a “typical Tomlin win.”

Like in 2018, for instance. That’s when Tomlin’s 7-2-1 Steelers sandwiched two hideous losses to rotten editions of the Denver Broncos (6-10) and Oakland Raiders (4-12) around a 16-point blown lead at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Then they went out and beat the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in Week 15.

Tomlin’s 2012 club puked up eight turnovers in Cleveland during a 20-14 defeat the last week of November, then won in Baltimore against the eventual AFC North champion Ravens the first week of December.

In 2021, the Steelers fell to 5-5-1 after tying the winless Lions at home and losing to the Chargers and Bengals in three consecutive weeks. Then they beat the 8-3 Ravens to get back above .500.

Last year, they went 2-6 before the bye. They went 7-2 after the bye.

This is what Tomlin teams do. They roll around in pig slop for a couple of weeks, then manage to shower off before anyone outside of Pittsburgh realizes how bad they smell.

The Eisen factor

Speaking of which, did you notice who is calling the game on the NFL Network on Saturday? My good friend Rich Eisen.

No one falls for the aforementioned Steelers pig slop routine more than Eisen. Well, except maybe Mike Greenberg. Or perhaps Jay Glazer. Oooh, I forgot, Stan Verrett.

Regardless, Eisen is one of the many national media members who love praising Tomlin for extinguishing fires that his own team lit a few weeks earlier. He advances the frequent narrative of Tomlin making a safe emergency landing, after having to abort his own mission because they messed up the flight plan.

This game lays out perfectly for just such a script. And Eisen will orate it like Sir Laurence Olivier at a table reading for “Hamlet.”

Given his recent finger-wagging soliloquies at anyone in the Steelers fan base with the audacity to criticize Tomlin, expect 3½ hours of “I told you so” shaming as the Steelers grind their way to an ugly win that Eisen will no doubt portray as a master class of NFL coaching brilliance.

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Both run games

After four games of averaging 174 yards rushing in Weeks 9-12, the Steelers ground game has cooled. That average has dipped to 106 over the past two weeks.

However, over their past seven games, the Colts have given up 1,029 rushing yards — 147 per game. So look for the Steelers’ ground game to get back on track this week.

Meanwhile, Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor isn’t going to play Saturday. Neither is right tackle Braden Smith. Zach Moss totaled just 79 yards on 32 attempts the last two weeks, stepping in for Taylor. So, I expect a pronounced edge on the ground for the Steelers.

And not having Smith in the lineup is also good news for T.J. Watt in the pass-rush department. That means he’ll be lined up opposite rookie fourth-rounder Blake Freeland.

Tight end tale

The Steelers have been roasted by tight ends the past two weeks. Hunter Henry caught two touchdowns for the Patriots last Thursday. The previous week, Trey McBride had eight catches for 89 yards and a touchdown.

The Colts don’t have a singular, dominant tight end. Kylen Granson has the best numbers, with 264 yards on 22 catches and a touchdown.

I understand that the Steelers have really been boxed in when it comes to injuries at safety and inside linebacker. But if defensive coordinator Teryl Austin can scheme up a way to limit Michael Pittman on the outside, I don’t see a Colts tight end exploiting the middle of the field by extension.

History lesson

The Steelers have beaten the Colts eight consecutive times. They haven’t lost to Indianapolis since Nov. 9, 2008. That was a 24-20 result in Pittsburgh.

They haven’t lost in Indianapolis since the infamous “Monday Night Football” game in Week 12 of 2005 when the Colts won 26-7 to improve to 11-0 thanks to an 80-yard touchdown pass from Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison on Indy’s first offensive snap of the game.

Oh, and some fake crowd noise too.

In both of those years, the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl. I’m not predicting that result this year. But I am predicting a 19-16 Steelers win on Saturday.

Listen: Tim Benz previews Steelers vs. Colts with Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan in Indianapolis.