Football Footnotes: Examining the scenarios for the Steelers to avoid AFC playoff elimination

There are a lot of confusing AFC playoff scenarios afoot this weekend, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are involved in many of them.

For the Steelers, a few things are clear. They can’t clinch anything with a win in Seattle on Sunday. And they can’t be eliminated strictly by losing to the Seahawks. A few other things would have to happen to make that possible.

According to NFLPlayoffScenarios.com and NFL tie-breaking guru Joe Ferreira, the Steelers’ elimination scenarios are as follows:

1) Steelers loss + Bills win/tie + Colts win + Texans win + Broncos loss/tie

or

2) Steelers loss + Bills win/tie + Colts win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Chiefs win/tie

or

3) Steelers loss + Bills win/tie + Colts win/tie + Jaguars win + Broncos loss/tie

So, that’s the good news. A lot will have to happen for the Steelers to be eliminated this weekend, even if they lose in Seattle.

Here’s the bad news: According to BetRivers.com, a lot of those individual outcomes are favored to happen.

So, for this Friday’s “Football Footnotes,” we break down each of the games that impact the Steelers’ playoff chances.

• The Steelers (8-7) are 3.5-point underdogs in Seattle (8-7). I’m surprised the line is that narrow. I was expecting a bigger spread. The franchise is 1-7 all-time in Seattle. I have no idea how the Steelers’ banged-up secondary is going to cover the Seahawks’ dangerous wide receiver threesome of D.K. Metcalf, Tyer Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And while I love the Mason Rudolph story as much as the next guy, maybe last week’s result against the Cincinnati Bengals is as good as it’s going to get.

I’m picking the Seahawks 29-25.

• Buffalo (9-6) is a whopping 13-point favorite at home against the New England Patriots (4-11). To be fair, New England did upset the Bills 29-25 in Week 7. However, the Bills are playing much better of late, winning four of their last five. The only defeat in that time was a 37-34 loss in Philadelphia on Nov. 26. The Bills may not cover but expect them to win.

• Indianapolis (8-7) is favored by 3.5 points at home against the Las Vegas Raiders (7-8). Indy is coming off of a disheartening 29-10 defeat in Atlanta last week, sapping the momentum they built after beating the Steelers two weeks ago. The 11th-place Raiders still have a faint pulse in the AFC playoff race and have won two in a row. However, according to Bet Rivers, the Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss. This one is a total coin flip in my eyes. Every Steelers elimination scenario involves the Colts gaining at least a tie. That’ll probably happen, but maybe the Raiders can step up and get in the way.

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• The Houston Texans (8-7) and Tennessee Titans (5-10) are both getting their promising rookie quarterbacks back from injury. I like Tennessee’s Will Levis (ankle). But C.J. Stroud (concussion) coming back for Houston is a bigger deal. Look for the Texans to bounce back from their loss to the Browns last week. They are four-point favorites at home.

• When it comes to the Jaguars (8-7), one Steelers elimination scenario involves the Jaguars winning. Another involves them losing. The more direct one (Scenario 3) involves them winning. That’s probably what will happen Sunday because they play the 2-13 Carolina Panthers. Even with a four-game losing streak and a beat up quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville should win at home, even if they don’t cover the six-point spread.

• In two scenarios, a Broncos (7-8) loss or tie would help eliminate the Steelers. They are favored to beat the Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) by 3.5 points at home Sunday. I’m not so sure about that. Yes, the Chargers are eliminated and have lost three in a row. But benching Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham does nothing to make me think the Broncos are about to win for the first time in their last three tries. Both teams feel like a mess to me, and this one could fall either way.

• Kansas City’s result will only impact the Steelers if the Steelers and Jags lose while the Texans, Colts and Bills all win. Should all of that happen, the Steelers get bounced if the Chiefs (9-6) win or tie against the Cincinnati Bengals (8-7). For as much as the Chiefs have struggled lately (losing three of four), I expect they’ll win at home against the Bengals (8-7). They may not cover the seven-point spread, but I can’t see Patrick Mahomes losing to Aidan O’Connell and Jake Browning in consecutive weeks.

Does all that feel dubious, Steelers fans? I’m sure it does. But, c’mon, how often do five- or six-leg parlays really hit in the NFL?

Don’t worry, I checked. They are all extreme long shots. Via Bet Rivers, Scenario 1 would pay out at plus-877. Scenario 2 has a plus-1560 payout. Scenario 3 is at plus-804.

But if the Steelers lose to the Seahawks with any other permutation of results, the odds will be even longer for the Steelers making the postseason next week even if they do stay alive.

So, keep it simple. Upset the Seahawks and recalibrate next week.

Listen: Jeff Erickson of RotoWire joins Tim Benz to hand out some fantasy football advice in advance of championship game weekend in most leagues