Football Footnotes: A slew of under-the-radar bets to make on Super Bowl Sunday
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Our annual Super Bowl betting edition of “Football Footnotes” has been hit or miss the past two years.
When the Rams beat the Bengals two years ago, I went 4-3 and made money. When the Eagles lost to the Chiefs last year, I went 2-4 and lost money.
So, essentially, if you gamble with me, you are quite literally … gambling. I could go in any number of directions with my results on Super Bowl Sunday.
Good luck, and gamble responsibly.
By “responsibly,” I mean following someone else’s advice besides mine.
Note: All lines provided by BetRivers.com
• I’m surprised the Kansas City Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs. I thought that number was put out after Conference Championship Weekend to suck in some heavy early K.C. money, and I expected it to correct as the next two weeks went along.
It has. But only by half a point. The line right now at BetRivers.com is San Francisco at minus-2. So I bought a point in favor of the Chiefs to get the margin up to a field goal and took K.C. at plus-3 (minus-139).
I’m inclined to leave the point total alone on this one. My gut says the game is going over 47.5 points. But I’m also thinking if the Chiefs win, it’s going to have to be fairly low scoring. This is too much of a coin flip. I think there are better bets to be made elsewhere.
• If the Chiefs win, Patrick Mahomes will probably be the MVP. It’d be his third such award. And you can still get it at plus-140. That strikes me as excellent value. Get in on it now.
I also placed a long-shot bet on running back Isiah Pacheco at plus-3000. So $20 would pay off at $620.
I’m heavily invested in Pacheco’s individual props. I’ve got him scoring a touchdown (minus-115) and going over 86.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards. The Niners allowed 136 and 182 yards rushing in their two playoff games.
Pacheco has 84.6 yards rushing (alone) on average in the Chiefs’ three playoff games. He scored a touchdown in all three, as well.
• On the San Francisco side, I love quarterback Brock Purdy going over 12.5 rushing yards. Some are saying that’s a sucker bet because in the last two playoff games, he went for 48 (Detroit) and 14 (Green Bay) yards rushing, but in six of the last seven regular season games, he stayed under that total.
Well, then, I guess I’m a sucker because I’m in on it. I also took Deebo Samuel at over 15.5 yards rushing (minus-115) and over 78.5 yards rushing and receiving (minus 109).
As KNBR’s John Lund told me on Thursday’s “Breakfast With Benz” podcast, “I think you’re right. (Purdy) is going to run in this game. … They don’t run Deebo a lot during the season. But during the playoffs, because there is no tomorrow, they do. And that’s why Brock Purdy ran against the Lions. They were desperate. You say this guy is not going to beat us with his legs. But he’ll do that, and he’s sneaky athletic.”
I also sprinkled a few bucks on tight end George Kittle going over 49.5 yards receiving at plus-100. He’s gone over that mark in five of his last seven games. The Niners say he is going to play despite a toe injury, and I think the injury concerns are keeping the odds on his receiving totals friendly.
I’ve also got Purdy throwing at least one interception at minus-122.
• Here’s a bonus one to consider once the game starts. In Chiefs games this year, the second half under has hit 17 of 19 times. The fourth quarter under has hit 18 of 19 times. Particularly if the Chiefs are up after two or three quarters, you might wanna bang those numbers live in-game.
Chiefs again. 18-1 to the under in the 4th and 17-2 second half.
— Paul Howard (@paulyhoward) January 22, 2024
Right now, the point total for the second half is at 24.5 points, with the under at minus-130. The fourth quarter is at minus-109 at 13.5 points.
So, to recap, I have nine bets:
• Kansas City +3 (minus-139)
• Mahomes to win MVP at plus-140 and/or Pacheco at plus-3000
• Pacheco over 86.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards (minus-109)
• Pacheco to score a TD (minus-115)
• Kittle over 49.5 receiving yards (plus-100)
• Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards (minus-112)
• Purdy throwing at least one pick (minus-122)
• Samuel over 15.5 rushing yards (minus-115)
• Samuel over 78.5 yards receiving plus rushing (minus-109)
Listen: Jeff Erickson (RotoWire), John Lund (KNBR, San Francisco) and Soren Petro (WHB, Kansas City) all break down Super Bowl LVIII