Big 12 faces difficult realignment questions as ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 talk alliance
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Big 12 leaders seemed to react with stunned silence when news broke over the weekend that the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 were having talks about a potential alliance between their conferences.
That makes sense. There wasn’t much for them to say. Well, nothing positive, anyway.
Oklahoma and Texas are on their way to the SEC. Three other power conferences are discussing ways to collectively answer that power play. Meanwhile, the Big 12 and its eight remaining members appear left out in the cold.
It’s too early to say what the end game will be for any alliance between multiple conferences, but recent talks among the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 send a sobering message about how others currently view the Big 12 now that it is losing two flagship members.
That’s not to say there aren’t some intriguing possibilities left for the Big 12, but league commissioner Bob Bowlsby may have to work a little harder now to find them.
With that in mind, here are some key questions to ponder before the next realignment domino falls.
HOW COULD A CONFERENCE ALLIANCE WORK?
There are plenty of options on the table.
The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 could simply be trying to gain political clout within college athletics by voting together on key issues such as playoff expansion. Or they could explore revenue-generating ideas such as pooling their media rights packages and a scheduling alliance.
If politics is their main priority, there may be some options available for the Big 12 to still partner with them in some form.
But the Big 12 would feel very lonely if those other conferences decide to move forward with a scheduling alliance that leaves Big 12 teams out of their future nonconference plans.
The possibility of the Big 12 forming a scheduling alliance with the Pac-12 seemed like the most realistic positive step forward for Big 12 members in realignment. If that is no longer on the table, because the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 would rather schedule their own marquee games then what is Plan B?
It’s difficult to say how long a scheduling alliance could take effect, though. Kansas State, for example, has future home-and-home series arranged with Arizona, Colorado, Rutgers and Washington State as far out as 2031. Asking teams to back out of all those games could be complicated in the short term.
WILL REALIGNMENT CHANGE PLANS FOR PLAYOFF EXPANSION?
There is quiet optimism across the industry that the College Football Playoff will still expand beyond its current form to 12 teams in the near future, but it is unlikely to happen nearly as quickly as some originally thought.
Could a consolidation of power conferences do more than simply slow the process?
Maybe. The SEC seems content to continue on with four playoff participants with games being played exclusively on ESPN. But the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 might have other plans. Several different TV networks share playoff rights in most pro sports. The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is also spread across four networks, not just CBS.
Some believe a conference alliance could force the playoff to let other networks bid on its media rights and drive up the price. A 12-team playoff would be worth more on the open market than a four-team version, so odds favor expansion.
But will they still allow automatic access for the nation’s top six-rated conference champions?
The Big 12 will certainly hope so. If its remaining teams stick together, one of them will have access to the playoff every year. That would help the Big 12 remain a viable conference in some form.
ARE OTHER CONFERENCES NOT INTERESTED IN ADDING BIG 12 TEAMS?
It’s starting to feel that way.
The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 could still look to expand by poaching Big 12 teams after they form an alliance, but it doesn’t feel like a priority.
Fans can probably give up the dream of a Big 12/Pac-12 merger.
If the other power conferences decide to stand pat, Big 12 teams could respond in one of two ways. The first would be all eight teams secretly working behind the scenes to sell themselves to another conference in hopes of earning an invitation.
All eight of the Big 12’s remaining members would prefer life in another power conference than life in a refortified Big 12 that has been relegated to second-tier status.
But there’s no guarantee such an offer will present itself for any of those eight schools. Kansas or Iowa State to the Big Ten? West Virginia to the ACC? Some combination of Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU to the Pac-12? It’s all fun to think about, but it also seems less likely now than it did at this time last week.
The other option: The remaining Big 12 teams unite and try to rebuild the conference via expansion or some type of merger with the American Athletic Conference.
There’s always the possibility this could bring them together.
Adding schools like Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston or UCF would make the Big 12 a competitive league, especially in basketball. But it would not be nearly as profitable as what Big 12 schools have grown accustomed to.
DO BIG 12 LEADERS STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN BOB BOWLSBY?
Conference realignment has not been kind to Bowlsby.
The Big 12 commissioner got caught with egg on his face when he shot down the idea of conference expansion at Big 12 media days, saying that it was no longer a priority for anyone because of the decline in traditional cable TV. And then Oklahoma and Texas were gone the following week.
He bounced back when news leaked about Bowlsby setting up an exploratory meeting with Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff, but that now appears to have been little more than a casual chat between colleagues.
Big 12 fans were excited about the prospect of working with the Pac-12 in some form. Alas, the Pac-12 now has something else in mind.
There doesn’t seem to be much internal finger pointing at Bowlsby. Kansas State athletic director Gene Taylor staunchly defended Bowlsby in radio interviews last week, saying everyone in the conference was stunned when Oklahoma and Texas decided to exit the league and that he is working his hardest to lead the league in uncertain times.
But he does not look like a proactive leader at the moment.