Analysis: Pitt must buckle up for 5 must-win games
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Let’s suspend reality for a moment and pretend that Pitt’s 33-point loss at Wake Forest on Tuesday night was, actually, the ACC opener.
It’s early December. Pitt fans can use the excuse that the Panthers and their stable of new faces — two freshmen, two transfers — just aren’t used to interacting with each other in games. The chemistry is developing in practice, but it’s just not entrenched enough to deal with a tough ACC opponent on the road.
Or, it’s only days after the holiday break. These things happen when a team is disconnected for a while.
In fact, Pitt had tough losses at those times: Clemson at Petersen Events Center in early December, Syracuse and North Carolina on Dec. 30 and Jan. 2.
Pitt recovered from those defeats, albeit with the understanding that they were not nearly as distressing as the disaster in Winston-Salem, N.C.
First, the Panthers responded by pounding West Virginia in Morgantown and winning four in a row against weak opponents in December. Later, they manufactured an 8-3 record after the North Carolina loss to inch into national relevance and resurrect talk of an NCAA Tournament berth.
But it’s late February, people. Pitt coach Jeff Capel has had most of his team together for several months, dating to about the Fourth of July. It was functioning well over the previous eight games with Blake Hinson referred to as an All-American by Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes.
Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes told ACC reporters today that Blake Hinson is playing at "an All-American level."
— Jerry DiPaola (@JDiPaola_Trib) February 19, 2024
Then, Forbes’ defense shackled Hinson to the extent that he didn’t even have room to try a 3-pointer in the first half Tuesday, and the Demon Deacons scored 91 points, a season high by a Pitt opponent. The concept of defense was lost on a team that had allowed an average of only 61.5 points over the previous four games, including two on the road.
While speaking to reporters in Winston-Salem after the game, Capel was not willing to slot the defeat under the category of “lesson learned.”
“At this point in the season, you should be past learning lessons. We just have to be better, period,” he said. “They were terrific. We were bad. It was an old-fashioned butt whooping.”
The loss is what happens to Pitt when Hinson and its starting guards are not shooting well. Four starters — Hinson, Zack Austin, Bub Carrington and Jaland Lowe — combined to shoot 24.4% from the field (11 of 45).
Pitt just can’t handle such inaccurate shooting when its big men are not able to compensate.
Confronted by Wake Forest 7-footer Efton Reid III, who played only 17 minutes but scored 12 points, Pitt’s 6-11 center Federiko Federiko tried only one shot — he made it — and got to the free-throw line for just two attempts. In 17 minutes, he grabbed one rebound. Guillermo Diaz Graham led Pitt with eight rebounds, but he scored only four points in 21 minutes.
The other issue is a short bench, with Jorge Diaz Graham (February ankle surgery) and 6-10 freshman Papa Kante (September knee surgery) out for the season. Other than nine minutes from William Jeffress and two at the end from KJ Marshall, Capel handed out meaningful minutes to only seven players.
Is there time to save the season? Sure.
Pitt (17-9, 8-7) needs to win two of the three difficult road games scheduled in a two-week stretch this month. The Panthers won at Virginia, lost at Wake Forest and now must find a way to defeat Clemson on the road Tuesday night. Plus, Pitt can’t stumble at Boston College or in any of its three home games: Virginia Tech on Saturday, Florida State and N.C. State next month.
In other words, the Panthers probably are looking at playing five must-win games over a 15-day stretch.
It’s another bout with reality.