Editorial: Is Lee-Patel race a bellwether for Pennsylvania in presidential year?

In 2023, Allegheny County illustrated a changing reality of politics.

It’s not just about Democrat and Republican.

The fight for district attorney might have been decided in the primary. The incumbent, Stephen A. Zappala Jr., was seeking his seventh term but lost the May Democratic primary to public defender Matt Dugan.

In some contests, that’s where it would have ended. It did in 2021 when two-term incumbent Bill Peduto lost to then-state Rep. Ed Gainey for Pittsburgh mayor. There was still an election in November, but it was only a formality.

But Zappala had enough write-in votes on the Republican ballot for the longtime Democrat to appear as the GOP choice. Add the Republican votes to a split decision among Dems, and Zappala had enough to retain his office.

Is the fight for Pennsylvania’s 12th House district shaping up for a similar political science lesson?

U.S. Rep. Summer Lee, D-Swissvale, is one of the most progressive voices in Congress. Line up the state’s legislative delegation in a spectrum of liberal to conservative, and Lee won’t have anyone to her left. It is to be expected that she would face a Republican challenger in such a contentious year. She does — James Hayes of Pittsburgh.

But that only happens if she makes it through the primary. Lee is the only Democratic congressperson in Pennsylvania to face a serious primary challenge. She did have two opponents, but Laurie McDonald bowed out in March.

That still leaves Edgewood councilwoman Bhavini Patel. She’s a more moderate option who also comes with an infusion of right-wing cash in the form of billionaire Jeffrey Yass, a conservative donor who is making big-budget ads criticizing Lee possible.

Right now, the main differences between Lee and Patel come down to the war in Gaza (Lee supports a cease-fire; Patel stands with Israel) and the internal party struggle over support for President Joe Biden.

Lee represents the far left’s opposition to Donald Trump. Patel is more about aligning with Biden.

And that difference shows how the Democratic rubber band is being stretched. To be fair, the same thing is happening on the right, with the GOP pulled between the Make America Great Again crowds and classic Reagan conservatives.

While Republicans tend to primary their officeholders by moving further to the extreme, Lee’s race — like Zappala’s — shows Western Pennsylvania Democrats are facing challenges from more to the middle.

How voters respond to a choice between Lee and Patel won’t be a guarantee of what happens in November. Lee’s 2022 win was narrow in a district that straddles blue Allegheny and red Westmoreland counties.

But it could be a bellwether of how the region — and the state — might lean in the presidential race.