The Home Stretch: Here's the election news for Nov. 5, Election Day

Today is the day! Right now we’re the calm before the storm, but as we wait with bated breath for tonight, we’re the ones who have work to do. Here’s what’s in the news today — but most importantly, go out and vote!

Where is everyone?

After a final day of campaigning on Monday that lasted late into the night for both candidates, the campaigns are counting down the hours until results arrive in personally meaningful places.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump will spend the day at his Florida golf club, Mar-a-Lago, before heading to the nearby Palm Beach County Convention Center for an Election Night party. His VP pick, JD Vance, has nothing on his public schedule.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, will be in Washington, D.C., today. She will host her own watch party tonight at her alma mater, Howard University. Her vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz will join her there after a political stop in Harrisburg, Pa.

Where’s the data?

We’re hours away from the real data, but here’s the last trickle of polling that’s come out over the past day.

Marist released their final national poll of the cycle yesterday, and it found Harris up four points, 51-47.

FAU/Mainstreet published swing state polls on Monday, and their Pennsylvania survey found Harris ahead by two points, 49-47%.

And Atlas Intel, in the fourth poll they’ve fielded in the past week, puts Trump up one point, 50-49.

The aggregates’ models are locked in right now. FiveThirtyEight’s election scenario simulator has Harris winning 5o times out of 100, Trump winning 49 times out of 100, and that nagging electoral college tie hanging around as the last possible 1%.

What’s going on?

The first update of Election Day has dropped from Pennsylvania for mail-in voting data. As of Election Day morning, 1,877,000 mail-in ballots have been returned in the state of Pennsylvania.

The New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, which has seen its tiny population vote publicly at midnight on Election Day since 1964, was split dead even between its six residents. Three voted for Harris, three for Trump.

Both candidates had appearances in Pittsburgh last night, each as their penultimate campaign rallies.

If you still need to make a plan to vote, visit pa.gov.

What’s everyone saying?

Op-ed pages the country over are full of messages to both sides today. Here are a few voices to listen to on Election Day.

Ingrid Jacques assures USA Today readers that “Yes, the stakes are high. But our democracy will survive this election.” “Call me a dreamer, but I’m not too worried about the future of our democracy regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidential election Tuesday. I have no doubt there will be protests across the country, no matter who is the victor, and that’s concerning. Yet, I also have faith that our system of government will survive. That’s not the rhetoric we’ve heard from the candidates and their campaigns, however. Both Trump and Harris have leaned into calling their opponent a threat to democracy and used fear tactics as a way to turn out their supporters. Trump has framed Harris as a far-left extremist who would turn the United States into a Marxist mecca. Harris has called Trump a fascist, unhinged and a tyrant. All this has Americans on edge, with a lot of people honestly fearing for the future of our country. That’s a shame.”

“I’m a Presidential Historian. This Is My Biggest Regret About Trump,” laments Jon Meacham at the New York Times. “As a biographer of presidents, I tend to think historically and seek analogies from the past to shed light on the present. And so, for years Mr. Trump’s marshaling of fear, prejudice, resentment, xenophobia and extremism put me in mind of grievance-driven figures ranging from Huey Long to Joseph McCarthy to George Wallace. To me, Mr. Trump was a difference not of kind (we had long contended with illiberalism in America) but of degree (since the Civil War, no figure with such illiberal views had ever actually won the White House). Then he proved me wrong. His concerted efforts to overthrow the November 2020 election very nearly succeeded — tangible proof that he is in fact willing to follow through on the authoritarian threats he so freely makes. I now see him as a genuine aberration in our history — a man whose contempt for constitutional democracy makes him a unique threat to the nation.”

The Editorial Board at the Washington Post advises, “Election night might not proceed as you expect. Keep your head.” “In the early hours of Nov. 4, 2020, then-President Donald Trump declared he had won the election, citing initial vote counts that showed him ahead. In fact, there were still many thousands of mail-in ballots, disproportionately cast by Democrats, still to be counted in battleground states. When they were, and Mr. Trump’s lead vanished, Mr. Trump cried fraud, setting in motion his effort to overturn Joe Biden’s victory, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol. As results trickle in Tuesday night — and, quite possibly, in the days after — Americans should prepare to be patient as they watch early returns that are not necessarily indicative of the final outcome. Delays could occur in new and unpredictable ways. In all likelihood, however, this will be no more due to fraud than the 2020 slow count. In fact, the voting system is probably more secure than ever.”

Daniel Friedman at The Hill declares that “The era of political polarization is over.” “From media claims that we are a hopelessly divided country to ceaseless personal attacks on the presidential candidates’ characters and track records, it’s not surprising that most folks believe the American electorate is more polarized than ever. A closer look at the two parties’ respective platforms, however, reveals a story of a homogeneous citizenry, and a nation unified in its temperament and values. Political polarization oscillates back and forth depending on various social and political factors, both domestic and international. Since the mid-2000s, the Democratic and Republican parties have tended in opposite directions along the political spectrum on a variety of issues. Nevertheless, in this election, we are witnessing a return of both parties and their presidential candidates towards centrist political positions.”