Natural gas commodities market, milder weather predictions could ease winter heating costs

Members of the natural gas industry, both locally and nationally, are predicting a decline in winter heating bills in 2024 based on the current commodities market as well as the long-range winter forecast.

“I think you’re looking at increased production and lower demand overall,” said Columbia Gas spokesperson Lee Gierczynski. “The current market prices are lower, which has to do with increased production, but it’s also a situation where there are fewer exports because of less demand in the European market.”

Those factors are contributing to what Columbia officials predict to be a roughly 50% decline in the commodity portion of natural gas bills.

There are two primary components of natural gas bills — the cost of the natural gas itself and the cost of delivering the natural gas to customers. The delivery charges cover the costs associated with providing service and emergency response, as well as the necessary costs to maintain, upgrade and operate the infrastructure that delivers natural gas to homes.

According to the American Gas Association, natural gas prices are on track to resemble the 2021 norm rather than the elevated prices of 2022, according to the AGA 2023 Winter Heating Outlook, thanks in part to higher natural gas production and natural gas inventories that are above the five-year average.

The AGA’s outlook projects home heating prices overall to decline by about 21%.

However, for homeowners who still may struggle to pay heating bills, options such as the Low Income Heating and Energy Assistance Program are available.

LIHEAP provides federal energy assistance grants to help with residential heating costs. Enrollment guidelines are based on household size and income. For more details on the program, see the video below.

Gierczynski said over the past couple of years, about 20,000 Columbia Gas customers have received LIHEAP grants to help with their bills.

“This season, they range from $300 up to $1,000,” he said.

In addition, some providers offer additional assistance. Columbia works with Dollar Energy Fund to administer a hardship program with grants up to $500 to help pay past bills or restore service if other assistance options have been exhausted.

“Even with the estimated decrease in market prices for natural gas, we know there are times when it may be difficult for some customers to pay their utility bills,” said Mark Kempic, president at Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, in a news release. “We urge any customer, regardless of their situation, to contact us to explore the wide array of programs and options that can be utilized to keep customers connected.”

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook projects warmer than average temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S.

For details about LIHEAP or to enroll, visit DHS.pa.gov and click on “LIHEAP” under the “Popular on DHS.pa.gov” section.