Experts break down Shapiro's pros, cons as VP candidate

Some Democrats think Gov. Josh Shapiro could be the key to unlocking the Keystone State in November.

If Vice President Kamala Harris selects Shapiro as her running mate, it would place Pennsylvania front and center in the presidential election against Republican nominee Donald Trump and his vice presidential pick, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio.

It would signal Democrats are banking that the path to the presidency runs through Pennsylvania, which is arguably the most crucial swing state, said Chris Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

The commonwealth has the most electoral votes of any battleground state — 19 — and the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has won the last four presidential contests.

“Pennsylvania is as important a place as you can possibly imagine,” Borick said.

Choosing Shapiro could only help the Democrats’ chances at securing Pennsylvania, according to political experts who spoke to TribLive.

They say Shapiro would complement Harris well in terms of policy, ideology, geography and identity.

Where Harris, a Black and Indian woman from San Francisco, might be seen as too liberal, Shapiro has moderate chops and deep ties to Pennsylvania and his Jewish faith. Where Harris is likely to see attacks over her past stances on fracking that might be toxic to Pennsylvanians, Shapiro has a litany of accomplishments that garner support from a broad swath of voters in the state.

Most importantly, observers said, is Shapiro’s high approval rating in Pennsylvania and his potential to help Harris secure the Keystone State, which Borick said is the likely tipping point for this election.

There still might be questions about how Shapiro’s record plays out under a national spotlight and whether progressive Democrats will come home for a Harris-Shapiro ticket, but even some Republicans agree Shapiro could be a net positive for Harris’ campaign.

“Shapiro has more pluses than minuses,” said former Gov. Tom Corbett, a Republican from Shaler. “He certainly doesn’t hurt the ticket.”

Pennsylvania bona fides

Shapiro was raised in Montgomery County outside Philadelphia. He was a captain on his high school basketball team at Akiba Hebrew Academy and expressed an interest in politics at a young age. He worked on Capitol Hill after majoring in political science at the University of Rochester.

First elected in 2004 to the Pennsylvania House when he flipped a historically Republican seat blue, Shapiro also served as Montgomery County commissioner and the state’s attorney general before being elected governor in 2022.

Alison Dagnes, political science professor at Shippensburg University, said Shapiro’s breadth of experience as a legislator, executive and prosecutor make him a formidable politician.

“As a former prosecutor, he knows how to make a case and make an argument stick,” she said.

As attorney general, Shapiro completed several notable indictments that broadened his support beyond his home base in Southeastern Pennsylvania. That included securing guilty pleas against a fracking company for polluting watersheds, facilitating a settlement between two Western Pennsylvania medical giants to maintain health care access and exposing hundreds of abuse allegations inside the state’s Catholic Church.

This record helped Shapiro dominate in Pennsylvania elections.

He has been on the ballot statewide three times. Each time, he received the most votes of any candidate. In 2016 and 2020 while running as attorney general, he received more votes than former President Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, and more votes than President Joe Biden.

A strong majority of Pennsylvanians approve of their governor. According to a recent Fox News poll, 62% of Pennsylvania voters approve of Shapiro, compared with just 32% who disapprove. That 30-point difference is near historic levels of approval for a Pennsylvania governor, a difficult job considering how evenly the state is split between Democrats and Republicans, who control the state Senate.

For comparison, Harris is at even approval and disapproval with 49% of each among Pennsylvanians. Trump has a 53% disapproval rating and a 49% approval.

Shapiro’s approval rating among Pennsylvanians is a strong sign he would boost Harris’ vote share in the state, even if only slightly, Dagnes said. But with Pennsylvania, a small swing can secure a victory — the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections each were decided by about 1 percentage point.

Complementing Kamala

Vice presidential picks typically are chosen to balance the ticket and appeal to a broader base of voters. Borick, the Muhlenberg professor, said Shapiro provides a nearly complete complement to Harris.

Pennsylvania balances geographically with Harris’ home state of California. The ticket would include a woman and a man.

Most importantly, said Borick, Shapiro’s moderate stances complement Harris, whose liberal background as California’s senator might make some Pennsylvania voters uneasy.

“If she is going to be characterized as very left, which Trump and Republicans have already started, bringing someone in that is seen as more centrist in politics and public image is smart,” Borick said.

Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick already has unleashed a flurry of ads targeting Harris’ past stances on fracking, immigration and crime. One ad shows an interview in which Harris is called the most liberal senator in the country.

Sam Chen, an Allentown-based political strategist who works on local and state campaigns, said naming Shapiro to the ticket would help Harris to parry those attacks. Though solidly liberal on most policies such as abortion, LGBTQ rights and boosting the minimum wage, Shapiro also is friendly to state energy providers and their labor unions and has a history of prosecuting drug traffickers in Pennsylvania.

“A vice president should solidify voters who are leaning your way but are not quite convinced,” Chen said, citing how former Vice President Mike Pence helped bring Christians into Trump’s camp in 2016. The governor, he said, would balance the Harris ticket.

“Shapiro checks all the boxes,” Chen said.

Under scrutiny

Some potential benefits that might emerge from Shapiro’s moderate positions also have led to a backlash from some progressive political groups and others critical of his record.

A sexual harassment settlement involving Mike Vereb, a former Shapiro aide, arguably looms largest.

Shapiro’s office paid $295,000 to settle a female employee’s complaint against Vereb, who was alleged to have made lewd remarks to the woman. The complaint was filed in May 2023, but Vereb did not resign until September.

Shapiro has not commented directly about the allegations. After Vereb stepped down, the governor addressed the gap between the complaint and the resignation, saying the victim was owed a confidential and rigorous process to ensure the appropriate outcome was reached.

The Women’s Defense League, a national nonpartisan organization, last week criticized Shapiro’s handling of the Vereb case and urged Harris to consider his response when picking her vice presidential nominee.

Critics also pointed out Shapiro’s vocal support for public funding for private school vouchers, something teachers unions and many Democrats oppose.

While some prominent public school advocates — like Donna Cooper, a staffer to former Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell — have condemned Shapiro’s pro-voucher stances, the Pennsylvania State Education Association and statewide American Federation of Teachers labor union signed on to a letter last month supporting Shapiro as the pick.

Although Shapiro sought a deal with state Republicans for school voucher funding, he ultimately backed off when Democrats in the state House balked. The state recently passed a budget that sent $500 million more to the state’s poorest schools compared with last year. He also secured funding for universal free breakfast for public schools.

Critics also have taken Shapiro to task about his support for Israel in the ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza. Comments that Shapiro has made about protests against the war have drawn the ire of left-wing groups and pro-Palestinian activists.

A drag on the ticket?

Left-wing groups have organized a “No Genocide Josh” online petition, claiming his pro-Israel stances and criticism of some protesters will drag down the ticket.

But those same groups have not seen much political success in Pennsylvania.

The groups behind the petition are the same ones that created the “uncommitted” write-in effort in protest of Biden’s stances on the Israel-Hamas war. About 60,000 write-in votes were cast in Pennsylvania during the primary, according to the Associated Press, with the majority of those likely being “uncommitted.”

Over 60,000 votes is notable, but it was still fewer than Dean Phillips, the Minnesota congressman who was challenging Biden, received in Pennsylvania. Biden won the primary with over 88% of the vote.

Marwan Kreidie, executive director of the Philadelphia Arab American Development Corp., defended Shapiro last week in an op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer, saying Shapiro has worked to earn the trust and respect of the state’s Muslim and Arab communities.

Nonetheless, Chen sees possible problems for Shapiro with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

“There is a risk of isolating progressives,” Chen said. “They won’t vote for Trump, but maybe they don’t vote at all, or you might lose them to a third party.”

Moderate importance

Concerns about lower voter turnout from progressives could materialize with Shapiro on the ticket, but some of those same left-wing apprehensions could translate to gains among moderates, independents and Republicans, Chen said.

Chen has worked on Republican campaigns across Pennsylvania, usually aligning with moderate Republicans like his old boss, former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Allentown. He said school vouchers are a popular policy among Republicans, and the party is solidly behind Israel in the war.

He said Shapiro garnered a good amount of support from Republicans when he ran for governor in 2022, noting his 15-point win over state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin.

Chen said Shapiro outran Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman by about 10 points, indicating a significant number of Republicans split their tickets and backed Shapiro.

“In Pennsylvania, you have to win in the margins,” Chen said. “Josh Shapiro is probably the right person to convince some moderates and independents to back Harris.”

Moderate voters in the state approve of Shapiro by a margin of 64% to 25%, according to the Fox News poll. Independents give him a plus-15 approval rating. Republicans disapprove of him overall, but he still garners 35% approval from them, which is 24 points higher than Harris.

Corbett agrees that Shapiro will get some crossover appeal from moderate Republicans.

That type of support already might be on display in Pittsburgh.

The widow of Corey Comperatore, the Buffalo Township man who was killed in the Trump rally shooting July 13 in Butler, took a condolence call from Trump but refused to speak to Biden. The Comperatores are ardent Trump supporters. But Helen Comperatore accepted a call from Shapiro.

Shapiro eulogized the former Buffalo Township firefighter the day after he was killed.

‘Get stuff done’

Dagnes, the Shippensburg professor, said Shapiro’s crossover appeal comes from his accomplishments, citing his efforts to rebuild the collapsed Interstate 95 bridge in Philadelphia in less than two weeks.

All voters are turned off by partisanship, she said, and Shapiro embraces a pragmatism that is attractive. His motto is “get stuff done,” which he uses often during speeches and rallies, sometimes replacing “stuff” with a less family-friendly word.

“The fact that he accomplishes stuff and embraces that mindset is very appealing,” she said.