Rising covid cases in Pennsylvania not as steep as late 2020 surge

There’s no doubt coronavirus cases are on the rise in Pennsylvania. But the cases do not appear to be increasing at the rate seen in early November.

The state’s current week-over-week numbers indicate cases are rising an average of 20-30%, whereas, in November, the week-over-week rates were averaging in the 50-60% range.

On Monday, the Pennsylvania Department of Health’s data shows 5,714 new cases of covid-19 were added in the Sunday-Monday period — bringing the state’s seven-day case average to 3,833 — an increase of 28.8% over the previous week (2,977).

While cases are rising, the covid-related death rates in Pennsylvania are still down for the month. In the past seven days, 226 deaths have been reported — down 45% from March 1. In November, the seven-day death total rose from 151 on Nov. 1 to 573 on Nov. 30. In December, it went from 612 on the first day to 1,260 on the final day.

In the current two-day period, the state surpassed 25,000 deaths, with 29 new covid-related fatalities, bringing to 25,015 the total lost to covid in Pennsylvania.

Over the weekend, health officials say data was posted in error to the state’s Covid Alert PA mobile app, which showed a case increase more than 3,000 higher than the actual number. Saturday’s correct new case number was 4,387. Maggi Barton, a spokeswoman for the Department of Health, said Monday the errors have been corrected.

Barton said Saturday’s glitch happened when data was pulled in from the PA-NEDSS system. She said department staff noticed technical issues led to some old cases being pulled into the count. Barton said teams worked through the weekend to resolve the issue.

Among the state’s new covid cases, 4,663 were confirmed through PCR tests, while 1,051 were listed as probable. Health officials define a probable case as one in which a patient has a positive viral antigen test or covid symptoms with a “high-risk exposure” to someone who has been confirmed to have coronavirus.

The state’s PCR positivity rate, according to the Early Warning Dashboard, shows an increase from 6.5% from March 12-18 to 7.6% from March 19-25. Testing for covid-19 had been on the decline since mid-December — going from a seven-day average of 27,000 tests per day to just under 10,000 in late February. Since then, the average increased to just over 12,000 PCR tests per day.

In terms of hospitalizations, the state’s OpenDataPA site reports there are currently 1,916 Pennsylvanians being cared for in facilities, with 389 of them in intensive care units and 209 on ventilators. It’s the ninth straight day in which the state has seen an increase in hospital admissions for coronavirus. In that time, 387 new hospitalizations have occurred.

On the vaccination front, at least 1,993,173 Pennsylvanians have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine or both shots of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, while at least 3,832,474 have at least one dose of any covid vaccine. That means 30.2% have partial coverage and 15.7% are fully vaccinated.

According to information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pennsylvania has moved itself up in the rankings of states with the highest percentage of vaccine doses administered. Currently, Pennsylvania is 22nd among all states, having distributed 80.8% of the 7,164,385 doses distributed to the state. That’s four spots higher than West Virginia and seven higher than Ohio.

Since the pandemic began, Pennsylvania recorded 1,015,268 cases of covid-19, with 864,804 confirmed through PCR testing.

Allegheny County

Part of the weekend’s data discrepancy was lingering Monday in Allegheny County. The daily report by the county health department initially indicated 592 new cases, as opposed to the state department’s report of 640 new cases. County spokeswoman Amie Downs confirmed the state’s report of 640 is correct.

In the Sunday-Monday period, Allegheny County added 450 confirmed cases (via 1,463 PCR tests) and listed 190 as probable.

The county lists the date range of positive tests from March 22-28. New cases ranged in age from 1 month to 91 years, with a median age of 36 years. The latest two-day report is close to 50% higher than last week’s report. The county’s seven-day average of new cases stands at 396, with its seven-day total at 2,770.

The county reported one new death — a person in their 70s who was not associated with a long-term care facility. There have been 1,760 deaths total in the county since the pandemic began.

According to the Allegheny County Health Department, the age breakdown of the newly reported cases — 294 female, 298 male — were reported as:

• Ages 0-4: 13
• Ages 5-12: 28
• Ages 13-18: 63
• Ages 19-24: 61
• Ages 25-49: 234
• Ages 50-64: 142
• Ages 65 and over: 51

Note: The breakdown does not add up to 640, as the initial county report was off by several cases.

Among vaccinations, the state reports 203,355 Allegheny County residents have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine or both shots of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, and 408,399 with at least one dose of a covid vaccine. That translates to 33.4% who have partial coverage and 16.6% who are fully vaccinated.

There are 201 residents of Allegheny County in the hospital for covid-19, with 59 of them in the ICU and 25 on ventilators. It’s the first time since Feb. 25 (206) that the county has seen over 200 hospitalized with covid, with numbers rising since March 16.

Since the pandemic began, there have been 84,850 cases of covid-19 reported in Allegheny County, with 65,522 of them confirmed through PCR testing.

Westmoreland County

On Monday, the state reported 164 new covid-19 cases in Westmoreland County — an increase of 29% from a week ago. The county’s seven-day case average rose to triple digits (101) for the first time since Jan. 30, when it was an even 100.

Of the latest cases, 73 were confirmed through PCR tests, while 91 were listed as probable.

The state reported one new death in the county, bringing the total to 704 since the pandemic began. The seven-day covid-related death total in Westmoreland County stands at 6, down from a high of 11 earlier in March.

Among vaccinations, the state reports 52,419 county residents have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine or both shots of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, and 104,288 with at least one dose of a covid vaccine. That translates to 28.5% who have partial coverage and 14.4% who are fully vaccinated.

There are 23 Westmoreland County residents hospitalized with covid-19, with four of them in the ICU and two on ventilators. The county’s hospital numbers have remained steady over the past several weeks.

Since the pandemic began, the county has recorded 28,930 cases of covid-19, with 20,070 of them confirmed through PCR testing.

Editor’s Note: This story was updated with new vaccine data from Philadelphia’s Department of Health.