Plum school renovation projects may be altered after study forecasts declining enrollment

A proposed $1.5 million renovation project at Plum School District’s Pivik Elementary might be off the table after a demographics study projected declining enrollment for the next decade.

It is part of an estimated $68.5 million in contemplated renovations and new construction at the K-4 schools, Pivik and O’Block elementary, and the middle school, as well as the possible return of full-day kindergarten.

Davis Demographics presented its findings to the school board on Tuesday, Feb. 13.

Findings

Georgia Leonard, geographic information systems director for Davis Demographics, said the study found O’Block’s growth is estimated at 5% the next five years while Pivik is expected to decline by about 16% during that time.

Enrollment in fifth and sixth grades is projected to increase in five years by about 9% and by about 12% in the middle school overall. A decrease of about 7% is expected for high school enrollment.

The report also found:

• Pivik enrollment would drop from 730 students this school year to about 610 in 2028-29 and 604 in 2033-34. Maximum student capacity at the school is 768.

• O’Block Elementary enrollment is expected to increase from 503 this school year to about 553 in 2028-29 and up to 564 in 2033-34. O’Block’s maximum student capacity is 512.

• Middle school enrollment is expected to go from 547 students this school year to about 614 in 2028-29 and down to 542 in 2033-34.

• High school enrollment is expected to go from 1,250 students this school year to about 1,161 in 2028-29 and back up to 1,230 in 2033-34.

Districtwide student enrollment is predicted to drop from 3,568 students this school year to 3,525 in 2028-29, a difference of less than 1.5%, before falling to 3,471 in 2033-34.

“When you look at our overall population, it’s flat,” Superintendent Rick Walsh said. “When you start to desegregate the data and start to drill down, those slides in regards to what is happening in our O’Block attendance area and our Pivik attendance area is very informative to our board.

“Based on this data, I don’t believe there needs to be any renovations at Pivik, which is significant to know. … This is one more piece of the puzzle for us to consider.”

The study examined student enrollment, residential development and other factors such as people moving in and out of the district and attrition to upper grades.

There are nine residential development projects in the borough with nearly 300 total units that could add 254 K-12 students the next eight years, according to the report.

A majority of them would live near O’Block Elementary.

It also figured in the number of students that live in each school’s attendance area compared to actual school enrollment.

For example, the report showed 740 students currently live in the Pivik area, but only 730 go to that school.

The O’Block neighborhood has 490 students living in its attendance area but 503 children are enrolled there. O’Block Elementary houses the district’s specialized classrooms for elementary students with diverse needs, meaning students with specialized needs in both the O’Block and Pivik neighborhoods attend O’Block.

What it could impact

The board has yet to decide how to proceed with the multimillion dollar renovations.

Hayes Design Group in December presented the board with a recommended $28.2 million project at O’Block.

It includes a 17,000-square-foot addition with five classrooms, two specialized classrooms, a collaborative or flexible classroom, a learning support room and a sensory room. There also would be improvements to other areas of the building and the site, improved flow of buses and cars, and additional parking and play areas.

The firm also has presented the district with plans for additions and renovations to Plum Middle School that would cost about $38.8 million.

Following the Tuesday, Feb. 13 presentation, board member Mark Stropkaj said the district’s budget is $30 million to $35 million, based on how much it can currently borrow.

“We’re trying to decide how much we can afford,” he said. “We (met with) the bond company (PFM Financial Advisors) back in January, open discussion meeting. We’re putting the budget together and we’re starting to put a three-, five- and 10-year plan together to see what we can afford. Once we know how much we are willing to go out and spend, then we’ll decide how we’re going to allocate that across the buildings.”

In January, financial advisers gave Plum’s school board four options to pay for potential building projects, that carry varying potential tax increases.

The district could increase its property tax rate for the 2024-25 budget by up to 7.1% under its state-imposed inflation-based limit known as the Act 1 index.

School directors voted in December to not raise taxes any higher than that. A final budget would be adopted by the end of June. Stropkaj said the board has not decided how much taxes might go up, and budget meetings in March, April and May will be crucial.

District officials had hoped to revisit full-day kindergarten in the 2025-26 school year.

The demographics report may have sped up that timeline.

“I’m very glad to see that the demographics have opened eyes to the fact that we need to discuss full-day kindergarten,” board member Ron Sakolsky said. “We are on half-day (currently). I absolutely support bringing back full-day kindergarten as long as we can fiscally and spatially support it.”

Both the demographics study and last month’s financial presentation are available on the district’s website.