Why Butler County is so crucial to Trump’s election chances

Southwestern Pennsylvania is one of the most important political regions in the country for Republicans this election cycle, and the Trump campaign appears to be well aware.

Former President Donald Trump next weekend will hold his first Western Pennsylvania rally of the campaign season in Butler County, signaling the region’s importance ahead of the Republican National Convention that opens two days later.

Trump will attend a rally at the Butler Farm Show grounds at 5 p.m. July 13, according to the former president’s website.

Duquesne University political science professor Lew Irwin said Butler County is important to Trump’s chances come November. It has a large, rural population, which is Trump’s base, and it also is home to many suburban women in the areas closer to Pittsburgh that will be crucial in deciding who wins the state — and possibly the presidency.

“The stakes could not be higher,” Irwin said. “Butler County checks a lot of the boxes for a Trump rally.”

U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Butler, said he is ecstatic to welcome the former president back to Butler County.

“This election is a tale of two presidents and two very different visions for our great nation,” said Kelly, a strong Trump ally. “Butler County is Trump Country.”

The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment for this story.

The farm show grounds are located about 40 miles north of Pittsburgh.

“You’ve got steelworkers, you’ve got blue-collar workers, and you’ve got farmers,” Kelly’s campaign manager, Melanie Brewer, said of Butler County. “I think it is a signal to the Biden campaign that Trump can rally his supporters easily.”

Trump easily outpaced Joe Biden in Butler County in 2020, capturing 65% of its vote compared to 33% for Biden. But Gov. Josh Shapiro and U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, both Democrats, improved on Biden’s margins in 2022, with Cranberry and its surrounding towns shifting toward the Democrats.

That is another reason Butler County is a good strategic pick for Trump’s first Western Pennsylvania rally, Brewer said. She said she expects the rally to help Trump’s chances of gaining the independently minded swing voters of Butler County’s fast-growing suburbs.

“Just because parts of the area ‘shifted blue’ recently doesn’t mean they are going to vote their party lines come November,” Brewer said.

Trump last visited Southwestern Pennsylvania in 2022 when he rallied for Republican candidates in Westmoreland County.

Southwestern Pennsylvania has the most Republican voters of the state, but Erie County and Northwest Pennsylvania are arguably the most pivotal parts of the Keystone State.

Trump won Erie County — and Pennsylvania — in 2016, but Biden won Erie County in 2020.

Although the presidential race has been dominated by discussions about Biden’s age after his poor debate performance, Brewer said Trump isn’t likely to linger much on that topic. She said Trump likely will bring it up as one of many reasons the county should vote to put Trump back in the White House.

“We need to change the direction of this country,” she said, “and I think Trump will focus on that.”