The Pittsburgh region’s unemployment rate jumped to 6% in March, but local economists predict the worse is yet to come because the jobless data was collected before the coronavirus-ordered shutdown of the state’s economy.
“I’m pretty certain the region is looking at something above 16% (jobless rate) for April,” said Chris Briem, a regional economist with the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Urban & Social Research. “There is a lot of uncertainty in how many of the folks recently being displaced from work will be captured in the official unemployment rate.”
The jobless rate in March, as adjusted for seasonal hiring factors, rose by 1.3-percentage-points from February, and 2-percentage-points from a year ago. There were 73,600 unemployed workers, an increase of 16,200 from February, the state’s Center for Workforce Information and Analysis announced Wednesday.
“I think there still is going to be a high unemployment number, with so many initial unemployment claims … and the continuous (jobless) claims,” said Risa Kumazawa, associate economics professor and chair of the economics and finance department at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh.
The unemployment rate is often a lagging number during a recession, Kumazawa said. In the recession of 2008-2009, unemployment reached 10%, but the amount of unemployment claims are higher now than in 2008-2009, Kumazawa said.
“This is unlike anything we have ever seen,” Kumazawa said. “Every industry has been hurt.”
Although the governor has lifted restrictions on some business activities, large swaths of the economy remain under shutdown orders, or limited in their ability to operate, such as car dealerships, real estate sales, golf courses and campgrounds.
Opening up the economy before getting a vaccine to protect workers creates its own problems, especially if workers are afraid to return to their jobs, Kumazawa said. The workforce could be stricken with covid-19, setting off another series of shutdowns.
“We have to fix the health issue before we can fix the economy,” Kumazawa said.
