Impact of Trump conviction uncertain, but even a small shift in Pa. could have big implications

Former President Donald Trump made history Thursday as the first U.S. president to be convicted of a felony, but the impact that will have on the November election is very much up in the air, according to party leaders and political experts across Pennsylvania.

Republican and Democratic leaders in Western Pennsylvania predicted the verdict will fire up their respective voters, while political scientists at universities in the Keystone State didn’t think Trump’s conviction would have a sweeping impact across the electorate — though even a small impact could make a big difference.

“I think it does matter at the margins, and the margins are where it matters,” said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University in central Pennsylvania.

She predicted the conviction will have an impact among highly educated voters in the suburbs.

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Dagnes said voters in communities like Pittsburgh’s North Hills play a huge role in determining elections in Pennsylvania because they tend to swing between supporting Republicans and Democrats.

She said polling has shown that as many as one-fifth of voters would alter their support for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

Biden defeated Trump by about 80,000 votes in 2020 in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. Biden’s victory was boosted by a strong showing in suburban communities.

Dagnes said many swing voters dislike Trump and Biden as their options for November, but this conviction will make voting for Trump an even tougher pill to swallow.

“It’s not that there are swing voters who can’t make up their minds,” she said. “It’s that there is so much distaste on voters’ minds, and this adds more distaste for Trump.”

Duquesne University law professor Gene Mazo studies election law. He said Trump’s conviction won’t have that large of a political impact.

He noted that election law is clear that Trump can still run for president as a convicted felon.

Mazo said there are many irregularities to New York state law that will impact how voters perceive the conviction, and media coverage in the coming weeks could change people’s initial reactions. He expects things to settle and for most voters to revert back to their bases of support.

“I don’t think this changes the calculus,” Mazo said.

He agrees with Dagnes that suburban voters will be key, but he says it’s too soon to say how the conviction will impact them. Mazo said most swing voters don’t decide on their vote until very close to Election Day.

“Some people will come to terms with the news of this conviction over the next five months,” Mazo said. “It’s more important what happens starting in September, or even November.”

Mazo expects Republicans to take advantage of this moment and raise large amounts of campaign donations.

Allegheny County Councilman Sam DeMarco, chairman of the county’s GOP committee, said Republican voters in the county will be energized by the conviction.

He said the case was politically motivated.

“I think history will judge this as a personal scandal of no bearing on public policy that was twisted into a criminal prosecution by an elected Democratic district attorney,” DeMarco said, referring to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

DeMarco is confident that Republicans will rally around Trump.

Local Democratic leaders also expect Trump’s conviction to rally their base.

“We have a pathway now. I have the sense it will spark enthusiasm,” said Michelle McFall, who chairs the Westmoreland County Democratic Committee. “Whatever fatigue Democrats have been feeling, this changes things.”

McFall said many of her party members assumed Trump would not be convicted, so the surprise nature of the guilty verdict will provide a boost.

Recent polling indicates this was a nationwide phenomenon. A Navigator poll taken in early May showed that only 36% of voters believed Trump would be convicted of any crime, while 47% believed he wouldn’t be.

Allegheny County Democratic Committee Chairman Sam Hens-­Greco also predicted the verdict will re-energize Democrats.

“This provides a boost to Dems. It will show our voters that finally (Trump) is being held accountable,” he said.

Local politicians across the ideological spectrum weren’t going to miss their chance to comment on the historic occurrence, whether they agreed with it or not.

Sen. Jay Costa, D-Forest Hills, kept his remarks succinct:

No one is above the law, especially those we entrust with the greatest amount of power.

— Jay Costa (@JayCostaPA) May 30, 2024

U.S. Senate candidate David McCormick called it a miscarriage of justice:

This is a terrible day for America and for trust in our justice system.

As CNN’s Fareed Zakaria said, "I doubt the New York indictment would have been brought against a defendant whose name was not Donald Trump."

This case should never have been brought in the first place,…

— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) May 30, 2024

State Rep. Guy Reschenthaler said Trump’s prosecution is the “greatest abuse of power in American history”:

Joe Biden and Alvin Bragg weaponized our judicial system, turning our nation into a banana republic filled with kangaroo courts designed to target their political rivals.

It's the worst abuse of power in American history.

Pray for our nation and President Trump.

— Guy Reschenthaler (@GReschenthaler) May 30, 2024