Airfares take a dip ahead of summer vacation season

Airfare is down a bit from this time last year for Americans eager to travel again.

But it’s still more expensive to pack your bags and board a flight than before the covid-19 pandemic.

The overall cost of travel is up 18% compared with April 2019 and up 2% versus the same month in 2022, according to NerdWallet’s Travel Price Index. The index combines data from individual travel categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index data, such as airfares and lodging.

Still, travelers may be spending a little less on plane tickets compared to last year when it comes to domestic destinations.

“Airfares do seem to be dropping,” said Sally French, a travel expert for personal finance site NerdWallet.

Compared to a price peak in May 2022, fares are down about 15%, she said.

“It seems like we’re not going to be seeing the new record highs every month that we saw before,” she said.

This week, the Consumer Price Index showed that in April, airline fares dropped about 1% year-over-year, cooling after jumping about 18% in March, noted Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, a personal finance company.

“I think that what we will see in the months to come is a continued kind of leveling off,” Rossman said. “Prices will remain high, but they’ll probably plateau a bit, at least domestically.”

Some of the higher costs are a result of supply and demand, but other factors are in play.

Jet fuel is pricier, while staffing levels and equipment inventory still haven’t recovered to pre-pandemic levels, Rossman said. One tactic airlines have been using is to try to book as many passengers as possible on larger planes.

“The number of travelers is pretty much back, but the number of planes is still down a bit.”

When it comes to domestic versus international travel, the differences are a bit more stark.

Costs for domestic flights for this summer “are looking significantly better than they were at this time last year,” said Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper, a digital travel marketplace, noting that a plane ticket is averaging about $306 – about $100 less than last year.

Meanwhile, international flights still have a longer path to recovery.

Last year, demand for international travel was down, covid-19 testing requirements were tighter and some countries had stricter travel restrictions in place. Since then, a lot of rules have eased. That’s caused a lot more demand for seats, especially as we enter the traditional summer vacation season in the U.S.

“We have a lot of travelers who want to take international trips – most of them to Europe and Asia, and there is not enough capacity,” Berg said.

For example, routes from the United States to Asia are at about 16% of the capacity of 2018, according to Hopper data. To Europe, capacity is at about 84%.

“So we’re still well below pre-pandemic levels,” Berg said. “Long-haul flights mean more fuel and more staff.

“It depends on which part of the world you’re headed, but if you want to go to Europe this summer, it’s averaging about $1,200 a ticket and for Asia, about $1,800 per ticket,” Berg said. “So those are really high ticket prices.”

At Pittsburgh International Airport, passenger counts have been climbing steadily this year.

In March, the number of passengers clocked in at about 754,880, a 12% climb over the previous year, according to data from the Allegheny County Airport Authority.

For domestic routes, passenger counts rose 11% to about 742,660 while international passengers spiked 100% to about 12,220 year-over-year.

Another indicator – number of folks who applied for the Transportation Safety Administration’s PreCheck program set a record in February. More than 19,200 individuals applied for membership on Feb. 21, the highest for any single day since the program to expedite security screening began in 2013, according to the TSA.

TSA reported the PreCheck program surpassed 15 million active members as of March 2.

If you’re considering a trip this year, and are concerned about your budget, try to be flexible.

That means off-season travel, such as in the fall, and booking flights during the middle of the week, when fares are less expensive, said French of NerdWallet.

And use online tools to compare prices.

“In terms of actually getting slight deal, I would not expect to get a last-minute airfare deal,” she said. “Unlike hotels where it’s common to see apps that will offer you last-minute hotel deals, it’s pretty uncommon to find a last minute airfare deal. In general, airfare prices actually rise pretty significantly within a few days of the flight.”