5 key moments that shaped the presidential race and a Trump victory

Donald Trump’s decisive win Tuesday night over Kamala Harris represents a profound realignment of the American electorate, giving Republicans a blueprint for future victories and Democrats enough cause for soul searching to last a presidential term.

Trump gained ground in almost every district and demographic, storming back to the White House by likely seizing all seven battleground states and keeping states like Florida and Iowa firmly off the map for Harris. These shifts almost certainly stem from more than one moment in a campaign that lasted nearly two years.

A few inflection points, however, stick out as possibly pivotal in a race that appeared as a toss-up before the polls closed and ended up just shy of a Trump landslide.

Assassination attempt in Butler

On July 13, Trump’s campaign stop at the Butler Farm Show grounds turned bloody.

Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park opened fire in an attempt to assassinate the now-president elect, killing bystander Corey Comperatore, 50, of Buffalo Township and seriously wounding two others.

Crooks was killed by security agents, but not before he nicked Trump in the ear with a bullet, producing the iconic image of the former president’s red-streaked face and defiant fist pump as the American flag waved behind him.

Trump, surrounded by Secret Service agents, shouted, “fight, fight, fight” — an almost instant rallying cry for his supporters and staple of campaign gear.

Weeks later, the Secret Service foiled another would-be assassin at Trump’s golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla., after discovering a man hiding in the bushes with a rifle.

The resonance of the Butler incident and Trump’s triumphant, bandaged return to the Republican National Convention just days later is apparent from their role in merchandising and advertising.

Biden’s debate meltdown

President Joe Biden, then the Democratic nominee, appeared exhausted at the first presidential debate on June 27. Some of his answers — as Trump gleefully pointed out — were incoherent, and came in a hoarse, strained tone.

Biden’s team blamed a cold, over preparation, a demanding schedule or some combination of these factors for his underwhelming performance. But the wheels were set in motion: 24 days later, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris.

The vice president had just over 100 days to make her case to voters. Despite quickly consolidating party support and seeing some encouraging polling early in her candidacy, that bump faded as Election Day neared.

Some political analysts have blamed the lack of a robust Democratic primary and Harris’ short runway for her loss.

Harris stays loyal on ‘The View’

Biden also proved a problem for Harris as she attempted to distance herself from his presidency, which had a 41% approval rating at last count by Gallup polls, while simultaneously serving as his vice president.

In a moment played repeatedly in pro-Trump commercials, Harris was asked during an Oct. 8 interview on “The View” what she would have done differently from Biden, besides appointing a Republican to her cabinet.

“There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact, the work that we have done,” she said.

The exchange crystallized a fundamental tension of her campaign as she sought to project an image of hope and change while also avoiding any major breaks with her boss. Harris’ platform was largely built on restoring or tweaking policies pushed by Biden on taxes, health care and other major issues.

Harris selects Walz

Democrats’ surprise veepstakes landed on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Aug. 6, bringing the folksy former teacher onto the ticket ahead of finalists Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Pennsylvania flipping red and going for Trump by about 3% raises the question of whether Shapiro would have given Democrats a better shot on the heels of his resounding win over Republican Doug Mastriano in the 2022 gubernatorial race.

Yet, it’s unclear how much home state advantage mattered this time around. Minnesota, which favored Biden by about a 7% margin, only went for Harris by 4%. Plus, Pennsylvania likely was moot for Democrats without wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, neither of which materialized.

Biden’s garbage gaffe

At a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden on Oct. 28, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe cracked an offensive joke about Puerto Rico, calling it “a floating island of garbage.”

His joke was immediately criticized by the Harris campaign. Biden got in on the action, too, creating a spin-off controversy in the process.

“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American,” Biden said during remarks to Latino activists.

The White House press office rendered the quote with an apostrophe in “supporters,” directing the comment more toward Hinchcliffe, but that didn’t much matter to the Trump team, which quickly seized on the gaffe.

The moment is reminiscent of late in the 2016 race, when Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton referred to a portion of Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables.”

Biden’s remarks backfired as Trump outperformed his last two runs for office, garnering the lion’s share of Latino voters on Tuesday.